February 21, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Debs Prayer | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Slide | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Safe Keeping | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | St Maria | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hushed Court Room | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | I Dont Know Either | 2.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Langfuhr’s Angel | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | St Josephine | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Verrazano Island | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Stavanger | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fightville | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lucky Crusader | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Curlin Edges | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tricolour | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dr. Benny | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Double Crown | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Went West | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shadow Matter | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Manny Wah | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Long Weekend | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Nin to Win | 12.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Empty Net | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lets Go All Theway | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Coinmaker | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Marama | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Ms Satch Mo | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ephemeral | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pink Channel | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hohohoho | 2.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Candy’s Parade | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Martyr of Charity | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Extraordinary | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Clear Humor | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Citadel | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | U S Navy Cross | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ekati’s Verve | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lake Nakuru | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Toe Bandit | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Classy John | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Binding Agreement | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chimney Rock | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A Song for Arch | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | X Clown | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jake the Band Man | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gravy Hound | 5.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Half Again | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Relentless Dancer | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Oscarette | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Classy Chrome | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ain’t She Dahrlin | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sweet Confusion | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Green Monster | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Melody Rose | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fashion Moon | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aunt Joie | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big If True | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Love of My Heart | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Sparkle of Hope | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Summer Mate | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chione | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Hot Mama | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wild Empress | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Queen Cordelia | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Livy B | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz American | 3.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Masquerade Ball | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cool Runnings | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | River’s Raging | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sportini | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Unspoken Memories | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Password Protected | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Moro Legend | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | That Dude | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Steely Danza | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Runandhide Wind | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | El Mic Tiesun | 10.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.