February 25, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | My Guitar | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sir Pokerface | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Star Appearance | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | C F Johnathan | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Little Flaco | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Semi Charmed Life | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Courtman | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hotpin | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Candy Shopper | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Single Shot | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coffee County | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fireinthestorm | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ole Stud Muffin | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Heza Chain Breaker | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tiddly | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ella’s Lil Star | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | I Love to Race | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Valerie Valeski | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Veilazig | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rivetrix | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Princess Renee | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Fed Money | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cartier Cat | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Call Me Plucky | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Evie’s Prince | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ultimate Irony | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gunner Paul | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baltic Fleet | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Willy Mc | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Start Well | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Glory to Me | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dreaming of Neany | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Akiane’s Soldier | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Grey Beauty | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dream Town | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Here Comes Lovie | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Philly Wins | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Amended | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smokey Harbor | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Vincitore | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Borgobythesea | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Paynt Battle | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | East Lex | 4.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lookin High | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Redivivus | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One Time Gem | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Briar Jumper | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Freightrainfreeman | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fleetridge | 10.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Loyal to the Game | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Old Forty Five | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gorostieta’s Love | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Simply Valid | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hero Dragon | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mrtandroseysboy | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | He Is Worthy | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Haddassah’s Devil | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ratification | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mercabo Cove | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ahimaaz | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Foliage | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Twentyone N Change | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blushinstreetdevil | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shanghai Trick | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Supercool | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Golden Flash | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Starrininmydreams | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Proxy | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Scarlet Fusion | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Guillaume | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Blue Jays | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Treasury | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Sermononthemount | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boyfriend Material | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Warrior in Chief | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Speitful Sam | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.