Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Monday, February 28, 2022

February 28, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sneaky Allie Kat 6.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Mista Valentine 4.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 We Need a Five 3.50 4.6 9-1
8 8 Daves Friend Dewey 20.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Grand Priority 3.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Musada 5.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Shackle the Gold 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Starvictory 20.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 I Don’t Fly Coach 6.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Brook Is Golden 20.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Snowball 2.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Steph’sfullasugar 20.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Galaxy Thirtysix 3.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Condesa’s Handmaid 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Fame Feather 3.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Strong Beauty 2.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Southern Liaison 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Flying Curlin 2.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Plemmonston 6.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Our Sexy A. P. 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Pure Valor 3.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Moro Warrior 20.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Chairman Moo 6.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Oxbow Wind 8.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Perfect Perigee 3.50 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 French Curline 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 American Hunter 12.00 2 4-1
5 5 Spooky Road 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Most Empressive 10.00 3 6-1
1 1 Allocate 3.50 5.3 10-1
3 3 Classy Miss 6.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Bee Right 3.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Fordland 6.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Schnell 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Zion 12.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Creole Charlie 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Secret Vista 4.00 4 7-1
2 2 Our Freddie Mac 15.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Release the Beast 2.50 5.2 10-1
5 5 Hooray Austin 5.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Stockpiler 12.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Monarch Man 8.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Stitched 10.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 First Glimpse 3.50 2.9 5-1
9 9 Cause to Cruise 2.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Practice Squad 5.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Buddy Reaux 12.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Jesuit 12.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Marquee Ride 10.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Costello’s Kitten 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Speight’spercomete 6.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Koufax 12.00 2 4-1
1 1 Koolhaus 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Hombrazo 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Crump 2.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Highland Creek 3.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Hornswoggle 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Burninhunkoflove 5.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Creme de Bali 15.00 2.1 4-1
1 2 Freelancer 2.50 2.4 4-1
8 9 Alebrije 15.00 2.4 5-1
1A 8 Holiday House 2.50 5 9-1
6 6 Pure Panic 3.50 5.3 10-1
7 7 Prayforpeace 3.50 5.6 11-1
2 1 Xavey Dave 12.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Roman Poet 4.00 8.2 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Chapel Barn 4.00 1.4 3-1
7 6 Jack the Ripper (FR) 6.00 1.6 3-1
5 4 Lemon and Diem 8.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Deano 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 5 Big Falcon Rocket 20.00 4.5 9-1
8 7 Murdo 5.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Club Soda 2.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Frolic More 10.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Richiesgotswagger 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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