March 1, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sunday Scheming | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Love and Lemons | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cave Creek | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Winning Quality | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kona Katie | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Altered Dream | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blondie Lox Babe | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Belmar Beauty | 4.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Everlovinghand | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Scully | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Battle of Will | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ranch Badge | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Back Alley Jammin | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Moment of Stardom | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Henning | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Scoring Drive | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon St Tappin | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tensas Virginia | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sandra’s Juel | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Steph’s Spirit | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Madame Jane | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Our Southern Girl | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mrs. Judy | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Silly Silly | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crypto Brave | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Strong Chick | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lucky Gone Sweet | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | In Sky We Trust | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Twirling Roses | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dinar | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Denver City | 1.60 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | May Hour | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Irish Hokie | 4.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jack the Umpire | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Populist | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Midnight Blue Note | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Miss Tulsa | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bellamy Cay | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sariah Sariah | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tellmeonasunday | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | I’m Fine | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chinatown Nancy | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Surely (FR) | 10.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Elle of the Ball | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Colors of the Wind | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coco Puff | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Delightful Moment | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Amenset | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Diamant Damhsa (IRE) | 3.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shishito (IRE) | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I’m Blushing | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Just a Nyquist | 10.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Rosia Bay | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Chrome Racer | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | My Friend Amy | 10.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Colonelsdarktemper | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Bariley | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Warrior in Chief | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Intrepid Heart | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lord Dragon | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Boyfriend Material | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ournationonparade | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shortlist | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Twoko Bay | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Mardi Gras S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sail On Ellen | 12.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Elle’s Town | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Change of Control | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Skinny Dip | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Onerollofthedice | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Goin’ Good | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Elle Z | 1.80 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | More Than Unusual | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Commander Scott | 12.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Home Visit | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Unfathomed | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Our Blue Jay | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Touchdown Joe | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Martinized | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cameo Dancer | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Drilling Report | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | More Memories | 4.50 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cypriano | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ciroc O Clock | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.