Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday, March 1, 2022

March 1, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sunday Scheming 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Love and Lemons 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Cave Creek 4.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Winning Quality 4.50 4.4 8-1
7 7 Kona Katie 12.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Altered Dream 12.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Blondie Lox Babe 12.00 7 13-1
4 4 Belmar Beauty 4.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 3 Everlovinghand 3.00 2 4-1
6 5 Big Scully 3.50 2.4 5-1
1A 6 Battle of Will 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 4 Ranch Badge 6.00 3 6-1
8 8 Back Alley Jammin 15.00 3.2 6-1
2 1 Moment of Stardom 4.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Henning 6.00 5.2 10-1
3 2 Scoring Drive 6.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Bourbon St Tappin 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tensas Virginia 4.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Sandra’s Juel 15.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Steph’s Spirit 4.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Madame Jane 3.00 3 6-1
8 8 Our Southern Girl 5.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Mrs. Judy 8.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Silly Silly 12.00 8 15-1
1 1 Crypto Brave 12.00 8.3 16-1
10 9 Strong Chick 12.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Lucky Gone Sweet 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 In Sky We Trust 6.00 1.7 3-1
3 2 Twirling Roses 10.00 2.5 5-1
2 1 Dinar 12.00 4.5 9-1
4 3 Denver City 1.60 5.1 10-1
6 5 May Hour 8.00 6.2 12-1
5 4 Irish Hokie 4.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Jack the Umpire 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Populist 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Midnight Blue Note 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Miss Tulsa 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Bellamy Cay 4.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Sariah Sariah 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Tellmeonasunday 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 I’m Fine 3.50 4 8-1
3 3 Chinatown Nancy 12.00 5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Surely (FR) 10.00 1.3 2-1
10 10 Elle of the Ball 6.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Colors of the Wind 10.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Coco Puff 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Delightful Moment 10.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 Amenset 15.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Diamant Damhsa (IRE) 3.50 7.7 15-1
8 8 Shishito (IRE) 5.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 I’m Blushing 20.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Just a Nyquist 10.00 9.7 18-1
12 12 Rosia Bay 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Chrome Racer 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 My Friend Amy 10.00 12.6 24-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Colonelsdarktemper 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 My Bariley 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Warrior in Chief 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Intrepid Heart 3.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Lord Dragon 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Boyfriend Material 20.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Ournationonparade 12.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Shortlist 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Twoko Bay 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Mardi Gras S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sail On Ellen 12.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Elle’s Town 12.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Change of Control 2.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Skinny Dip 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Onerollofthedice 15.00 6.4 12-1
8 7 Goin’ Good 6.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Elle Z 1.80 7.2 14-1
7 7 More Than Unusual 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Commander Scott 12.00 1.2 2-1
6 4 Home Visit 12.00 1.8 3-1
3 2 Unfathomed 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 3 Our Blue Jay 6.00 2.6 5-1
10 8 Touchdown Joe 8.00 2.7 5-1
2 1 Martinized 3.50 5.8 11-1
9 7 Cameo Dancer 15.00 7 13-1
11 9 Drilling Report 6.00 7.4 14-1
7 5 More Memories 4.50 8.7 17-1
1 1 Cypriano 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ciroc O Clock 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
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Final
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4th - 5:20
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Final
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15:13 2nd
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Final
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Bottom 10th
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Top 8th
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Top 10th
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