Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, March 3, 2022

March 3, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Magnolia Ridge 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Stone Alliance 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Classic’s Omega 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Maximum Fury 6.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Unbridled Hope 5.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Dignified N Krafty 20.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Runwildwithdreams 8.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Joeboy 2.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Miss Nitap 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 G’s Squeeze 1.40 2 4-1
2 2 Explosively Hot 10.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Spirited Beauty 2.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Ourperfectprincess 5.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Sienna Breeze 10.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Enough Heart 4.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Sister Chloe 4.50 2.8 5-1
10 10 Brave Nugget 6.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Slide 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Joey’s Sassy Shana 6.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Allstar Magic 20.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Dream Peaceful 3.50 6.5 12-1
8 8 Creole Baby 6.00 8.2 16-1
5 5 Emery’s Dream 20.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 Audacious Girl 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Path to Success 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 7 Mr. Cunningham 2.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 King of Sting 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Cantillate 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Henderson 15.00 4 7-1
3 3 Flashback Wind 8.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 King Tuff 3.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Prince of Glory 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Renati 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Guitartuition Plzz 8.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Bouldering 2.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Chief Kimosabi 4.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Its Wild Again 4.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Big Merrill 8.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Big Boo 12.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Putthehammerdown 8.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Lt. Bonura 15.00 2.4 5-1
8 7 Just Blaze 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 1 Crusader Express 15.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Channel Won 4.50 4.2 8-1
10 9 Spectrolite 8.00 6.2 12-1
6 5 Here Comes Kyle 4.50 6.7 13-1
5 4 Coco Tiger 8.00 7.2 14-1
9 8 Hug the Munny 10.00 8 15-1
1 6 Tough Charlie 4.00 SCRATCH
1A 8 King Liam 4.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Curtin’s Up 3.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Rockdale 6.00 SCRATCH
7 6 The Green Mo’ster 15.00 10.6 20-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Distorted Verve 4.50 1.4 3-1
5 3 Perfect Choice 2.50 2 4-1
1 5 Suki 2.00 3.1 6-1
4 2 Honorifique 4.00 4.2 8-1
6 4 Lady Frosted 5.00 5.8 11-1
1A 7 Good Penny 2.00 SCRATCH
3 2 It’sfiftyshadetime 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Snowscape 6.00 1.2 2-1
10 9 Lord Zed 3.00 1.3 3-1
6 5 McGolden 8.00 1.6 3-1
8 7 Setna the Wise 8.00 2.7 5-1
9 8 Faith Runner 12.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Sergeant Reckless 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Luckman 8.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Harmon Killer Brew 5.00 6.3 12-1
7 6 Mizzen Man 12.00 9 17-1
5 5 Rumble Ready 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Cyclone 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pray Ide Sing 20.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Aw Shucks 3.00 3 6-1
10 10 Dixie Street 12.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Broad Decision 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Quest for Avette 4.50 6.4 12-1
5 5 Too Much Bourbon 6.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Rahfees Man 4.50 7.1 13-1
9 9 Mr. Nasty Time 30.00 9.9 19-1
2 2 Run Away Son 30.00 10.1 19-1
4 4 Pillage Da Village 20.00 10.2 19-1
11 11 Gracida 10.00 10.3 19-1
12 12 Donna’s Court 12.00 10.7 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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