March 4, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bad Breth | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Little Lulu | 20.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Love’s Misery | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Roma Carpe | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | London Gold | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Delicious | 1.20 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Lohengrin Two | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1A | 7 | Manifest Destiny | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Mountain | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 4 | Vicar’s Legend | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 1 | P J Advantage | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tale of Mist | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Banyan Breeze | 1.80 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Investment Grade | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Charlotte Webley | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stencil | 1.40 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mebs Web | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Polished Gem | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Calibogue Sound | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Awesomenewyear | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Chloe Rose | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cadeau de Paix | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Norman Queen | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Thegoddessofsnakes | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Early Edition | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tellaperfecttale | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Winter Pool | 0.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | King Kumbalay | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Three Jokers | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Johnnypump | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My First Grammy | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Son of an Ex | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | How Lucky | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sudden Impulse | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gagliano | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Summary Judgment | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Luz | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Incontrovertible | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky Sitka | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Royal Meghan | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shesalittle Edgy | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tara’s Talent | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eloquent Speaker | 1.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dealing Justice | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rossa Veloce | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sicilia Mike | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | True Gold | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | O Shea Can U See | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Golani Brigade | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Devious Mo | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bad Guy | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Foolish Ghost | 2.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gandy Dancing | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.