Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, March 4, 2022

March 4, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bad Breth 2.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 My Little Lulu 20.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Love’s Misery 2.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Roma Carpe 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 London Gold 12.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 My Delicious 1.20 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Lohengrin Two 2.00 1 2-1
1A 7 Manifest Destiny 4.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Big Mountain 15.00 4.1 8-1
1 4 Vicar’s Legend 4.00 4.3 8-1
2 1 P J Advantage 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Tale of Mist 3.50 4.5 8-1
3 2 Banyan Breeze 1.80 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Investment Grade 12.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Charlotte Webley 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Stencil 1.40 3.2 6-1
7 7 Mebs Web 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Polished Gem 2.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Calibogue Sound 4.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Awesomenewyear 20.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Chloe Rose 5.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Cadeau de Paix 3.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Norman Queen 1.80 2.8 5-1
2 2 Thegoddessofsnakes 12.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Early Edition 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Tellaperfecttale 2.50 3.9 7-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Winter Pool 0.60 2.6 5-1
4 4 King Kumbalay 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Three Jokers 1.80 3.6 7-1
3 3 Johnnypump 20.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 My First Grammy 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Son of an Ex 15.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 How Lucky 3.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Sudden Impulse 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Gagliano 10.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Summary Judgment 1.80 3.2 6-1
2 2 Luz 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Incontrovertible 2.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Lucky Sitka 30.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Royal Meghan 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Shesalittle Edgy 8.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Tara’s Talent 8.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Eloquent Speaker 1.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Dealing Justice 4.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Rossa Veloce 4.50 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sicilia Mike 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 True Gold 15.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 O Shea Can U See 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Golani Brigade 3.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Devious Mo 10.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Bad Guy 4.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Foolish Ghost 2.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Gandy Dancing 20.00 6.2 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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