March 4, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Star’s Dream | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Ridge Queen | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spectacular Izzy | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Ridge Heat | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Rebel Girl | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Two With a Ten | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nine Line Bind | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Blame the Gods | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Country Time | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Erin’s Enthusiasm | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1A | 5 | Nofansinthestands | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 7 | She Wants More | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 3 | Glitterary | 1.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beautiful Bella | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fish N Chick | 6.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Linz | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sweet Bay | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Account | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ms Satch Mo | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz a Queen | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Infinite Solutions | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lucky Gone Sweet | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mizzen Monarch | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Nanny’s a Hoot | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Crafty Princess | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lake Runner | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Elsie Girl | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sky High Susan | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lil Adeau | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Viola Star | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speedy Dudette | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Scarlett O’Hara | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Visionofwildtimes | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dream On It | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Drop Dead Sexy | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Platinum Queen | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rue Lala | 2.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | True Blonde Auntie | 12.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Geaux On | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Moment to Dream | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Candy’s Pride | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cheapskate Diva | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dove With a Cause | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Funkylittleshack | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Classical Magnolia | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ann’s Storm | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mrs. Necaise | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hellman | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brigadier General | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Go West | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Warrior Johny | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Alejandro | 1.80 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ardanwood | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sunstrike (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Take the Backroads | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Trobairitz | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Eclipsed | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Kit Keller | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Old Pho | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Four Dawn | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Boxing Day | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Splenda Gail | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Heza Priority | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zelig | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pickens | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Makati Phil | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | C’Mon Ve | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | War Count | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flashy Brew | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | No Pedigree | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nosy Banker | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Soul Song | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Prizeless | 4.50 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.