Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, March 4, 2022

March 4, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Star’s Dream 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Blue Ridge Queen 2.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Spectacular Izzy 4.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Blue Ridge Heat 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 My Rebel Girl 15.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Two With a Ten 3.50 6 11-1
7 7 Nine Line Bind 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Blame the Gods 3.00 1.7 3-1
5 6 Country Time 3.00 1.9 4-1
2 1 Erin’s Enthusiasm 6.00 2.3 4-1
1A 5 Nofansinthestands 1.60 3.2 6-1
6 7 She Wants More 12.00 3.4 6-1
1 3 Glitterary 1.60 3.7 7-1
4 4 Beautiful Bella 8.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Fish N Chick 6.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Lucky Linz 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Sweet Bay 2.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Golden Account 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Ms Satch Mo 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Tiz a Queen 4.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Infinite Solutions 10.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lucky Gone Sweet 6.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Mizzen Monarch 10.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 My Nanny’s a Hoot 2.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Crafty Princess 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Lake Runner 12.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Elsie Girl 4.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Sky High Susan 2.50 5.7 11-1
4 4 Lil Adeau 12.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Viola Star 8.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Speedy Dudette 2.00 2 4-1
1 1 Scarlett O’Hara 8.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Visionofwildtimes 12.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Dream On It 5.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Drop Dead Sexy 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Platinum Queen 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Rue Lala 2.50 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 True Blonde Auntie 12.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Geaux On 12.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 Moment to Dream 4.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Candy’s Pride 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Cheapskate Diva 1.60 3.4 6-1
8 8 Dove With a Cause 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Funkylittleshack 8.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Classical Magnolia 20.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Ann’s Storm 20.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Mrs. Necaise 15.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hellman 5.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Brigadier General 8.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Go West 3.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Warrior Johny 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Alejandro 1.80 4.5 8-1
3 3 Ardanwood 3.50 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sunstrike (IRE) 3.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Take the Backroads 4.50 2.1 4-1
8 9 Trobairitz 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 7 Eclipsed 10.00 2.7 5-1
1 2 Kit Keller 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Old Pho 4.50 6 11-1
7 8 Four Dawn 3.00 6.5 12-1
1A 6 Boxing Day 6.00 6.6 12-1
2 1 Splenda Gail 12.00 8.2 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Heza Priority 12.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Zelig 8.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Pickens 12.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Makati Phil 6.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 C’Mon Ve 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 War Count 12.00 4 8-1
7 7 Flashy Brew 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 No Pedigree 8.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Nosy Banker 6.00 7 13-1
10 10 Soul Song 6.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Prizeless 4.50 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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