March 5, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Be Onboard | 6.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Al’s Prince | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Disco Pharoah | 1.60 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Scherzando | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Everesting | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sinful Dancer | 2.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vinny Two Cents | 30.00 | 35.1 | 66-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Improper | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Electability | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cathedral Beach | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Long Term | 1.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Don the Jeweler | 2.50 | 33.8 | 64-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Joe Brrrr | 30.00 | 36.6 | 69-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Tom Fool H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Prime Factor | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Timeless Bounty | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Repo Rocks | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Officiating | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chateau | 0.80 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Centavo | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Forgotten Mission | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Breaking Stones | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Matty’s Marauder | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jumpster | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Black Irish | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Run Casper Run | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brunate | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Victory Built | 2.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Addis Ababa | 30.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kong Loves a Fight | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | State Planning | 2.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moped Dennis | 3.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sensibleconclusion | 3.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Double Maker | 6.00 | 34.8 | 66-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chapel Road | 3.00 | 35.2 | 66-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | A Lister | 30.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Limit Up | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Acalteque | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beach Boy Al | 2.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Safalow’s Mission | 3.50 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hot Rod Rumble | 2.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Uragano | 5.00 | 33.6 | 63-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kazmike | 8.00 | 34.3 | 65-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | F F Rocket | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Glory Road | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | American Lincoln | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Parade Field | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kumar | 3.50 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Direct Order | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Joycee Haz Pizzaz | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chris and Dave | 3.50 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Him She Kisses | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Castle Chaos | 2.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Kaz’s Beach | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Fitzpatrick | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Standup | 2.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Trash Talker | 2.50 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
| 7 | 8 | American Gentleman | 4.50 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Bustin Shout | 5.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Busher Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Venti Valentine | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Magic Circle | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Morning Matcha | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shotgun Hottie | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Radio Days | 1.40 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sterling Silver | 6.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Gotham S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Golden Code | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Noneedtoworry | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Runninsonofagun | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fromanothamutha | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Rockefeller | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dean’s List | 3.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bold Journey | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Morello | 3.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Life Is Great | 15.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Glider | 8.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.