Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 5, 2022

March 5, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Be Onboard 6.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Al’s Prince 4.50 7 13-1
7 7 Disco Pharoah 1.60 7.4 14-1
5 5 Scherzando 8.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Everesting 10.00 8 15-1
1 1 Sinful Dancer 2.00 9.5 18-1
3 3 Vinny Two Cents 30.00 35.1 66-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Improper 6.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Electability 5.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Cathedral Beach 6.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Long Term 1.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Don the Jeweler 2.50 33.8 64-1
1 1 Joe Brrrr 30.00 36.6 69-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Tom Fool H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Prime Factor 5.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Timeless Bounty 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Repo Rocks 4.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Officiating 3.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Chateau 0.80 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Centavo 15.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Forgotten Mission 12.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Breaking Stones 2.50 5 9-1
3 3 Matty’s Marauder 5.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Jumpster 10.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Black Irish 20.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Run Casper Run 12.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Brunate 6.00 9 17-1
1 1 Victory Built 2.00 9.9 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Addis Ababa 30.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Kong Loves a Fight 10.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 State Planning 2.50 8.3 16-1
1 1 Moped Dennis 3.50 8.4 16-1
5 5 Sensibleconclusion 3.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 Double Maker 6.00 34.8 66-1
3 3 Chapel Road 3.00 35.2 66-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 A Lister 30.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Limit Up 10.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Acalteque 30.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Beach Boy Al 2.50 8.4 16-1
1 1 Safalow’s Mission 3.50 9.1 17-1
5 5 Hot Rod Rumble 2.00 9.6 18-1
6 6 Uragano 5.00 33.6 63-1
8 8 Kazmike 8.00 34.3 65-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 F F Rocket 8.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Glory Road 2.50 5.2 10-1
3 3 American Lincoln 20.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Parade Field 12.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Kumar 3.50 6.6 13-1
2 2 Direct Order 3.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Joycee Haz Pizzaz 15.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Chris and Dave 3.50 11.3 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Him She Kisses 20.00 2.5 5-1
1A 6 Castle Chaos 2.00 5.8 11-1
3 2 Kaz’s Beach 8.00 7.8 15-1
2 1 Fitzpatrick 6.00 8 15-1
1 5 Standup 2.00 10.6 20-1
6 7 Trash Talker 2.50 11.3 21-1
7 8 American Gentleman 4.50 11.3 21-1
5 4 Bustin Shout 5.00 11.5 22-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Busher Invitational S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Venti Valentine 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Magic Circle 3.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Morning Matcha 5.00 6 11-1
1 1 Shotgun Hottie 12.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Radio Days 1.40 7.5 14-1
2 2 Sterling Silver 6.00 9.2 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Gotham S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Golden Code 12.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Noneedtoworry 30.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Runninsonofagun 30.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Fromanothamutha 6.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Rockefeller 4.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Dean’s List 3.50 8.5 16-1
8 8 Bold Journey 6.00 10 19-1
9 9 Morello 3.00 10.5 20-1
6 6 Life Is Great 15.00 11.1 21-1
2 2 Glider 8.00 11.5 22-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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