Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 5, 2022

March 5, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Into Wishing 5.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Totally Addicted 3.50 1.9 3-1
5 5 Tripper John 2.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Tool Box 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Fluffpoint 4.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Stealing Apriority 4.50 5.5 10-1
4 4 The Three Ks 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Northernreflection 10.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 More Harder 8.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Mo Credo 6.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Perrins 4.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Helaire 3.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Charlie G 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Catchin Drama 20.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Marliesrajuncajun 20.00 5 9-1
9 9 Ry Dont Lie 10.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Golden Pegasus 6.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Golden Passage 3.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Ferocity 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Courthouse Cove 2.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Speedy G 4.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Runandhide Wind 3.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Red Camelia S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Offspring 3.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Tecate Time 12.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Winning Romance 4.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Blessed Anna 5.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Net a Bear 1.80 1.7 3-1
5 5 Fort Polk 2.50 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Wow Me Fast 4.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Freeze the Day 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Dial Ten for G 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 7 Abuela’s Humor 2.50 1.7 3-1
1 2 Surrey 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 1 Dashing Hero 6.00 5.5 10-1
1A 6 Burning Desire 5.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Black Gold S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tommy Bee 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Dowagiac Chief 1.60 1.3 2-1
5 5 Iberville 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Holy City 8.00 2 4-1
4 4 Magician Stone 8.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Silent Tap 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Russian Tank 6.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Tambourine Star 3.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Cosmic Train 6.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Eddie’s Humor 4.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Runninginthemoney 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Bind Faith 4.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Big Chopper 4.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 I Like Dreaming 12.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Edward J. Johnston Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ballinonabudjet 15.00 1 2-1
7 7 Mangelsen 4.50 1.1 2-1
10 10 City Park 12.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Budro Talking 12.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Who Took the Money 0.80 1.7 3-1
2 2 Behemah Star 12.00 2 4-1
5 5 Treys Midnite Moon 8.00 2 4-1
3 3 Get Them Justin 15.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Drewhustle 20.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Changi 30.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Mr. Universe 20.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Point of Victory 1.80 1.4 3-1
5 5 For Real Alice 8.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Kehron’s Creed 8.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Tuffology 6.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Active Girl 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 New Year’s Party 4.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Gilded Apple 8.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Custom for Carlita 5.00 6.7 13-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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