Sports from the Basement

Oaklawn Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 5, 2022

March 5, 2022 Oaklawn Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 D’ Yank 3.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 News Box 2.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Futile 8.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Flatout Winner 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Freudian Fate 4.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Petit Verdot 10.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Archiemyboy 4.50 6.4 12-1
1 1 Carl G 15.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mr. Thunderstruck 1.80 1.6 3-1
4 4 Terawatt 6.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Ernie Banker 4.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Nip N Tuck 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Rift Valley 10.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Wise Khozan 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Shacks Way 12.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Incorruptible 3.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Notary 5.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Tango Charlie 8.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Name Rejected 2.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Salado 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Beer Chaser 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Ribbons and Medals 12.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Breaking News 3.50 4.5 9-1
1 1 Cold as Hell 10.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Belfast Boy 15.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Splash for Gold 8.00 3.2 6-1
14 14 Love Nest 6.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Andreas 5.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Hardly a Secret 3.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Knight’s Cross 6.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Private Lake 30.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Kierkegaard 12.00 10.1 19-1
7 7 King Ford 20.00 10.3 19-1
11 11 Jack’s Advantage 8.00 10.9 21-1
4 4 Gambler 15.00 10.9 21-1
10 10 Slick Silver 10.00 11.1 21-1
6 6 Eagle Pass 4.00 11.4 22-1
9 9 That’s What I Say 30.00 11.4 22-1
13 13 Dr. Forman 3.50 11.8 22-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mr. Ankeny 15.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Win With Pride 5.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Press Snooze 12.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Tappin Fora Dance 6.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Don’t Forget 4.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Seau 4.50 7.2 14-1
2 2 Wrongwayhighway 20.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 One for Richie 2.50 7.4 14-1
9 9 Bachelor Pad 5.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Downthedustyroad Breeders’ S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Unbridled Twister 8.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Hillary G 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Starrgarita 20.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Too Pretty 4.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 Connie K 2.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Richness 5.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Lady Astrid 12.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Kaboom Baby 3.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Public Record 8.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Oiler 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Cole Spur 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Contrabandista 8.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Treaty 10.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Popster 4.50 5.4 10-1
3 3 Driven One 12.00 6 11-1
10 10 Wesleyan 10.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Aristocat 12.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Uncaptured Dream 4.50 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Much Better 4.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Whiskey Double 6.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Lykan 15.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Mojo Man 12.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Home Base 2.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Topper T 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Atoka 6.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Seven Nation Army 2.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Nodouble Breeders’ S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Gar Hole 2.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Tempt Fate 4.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 K J’s Nobility 5.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Mrs. Beans 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Big Success 20.00 4 7-1
8 8 Young Bull 8.00 4 8-1
10 10 Reef’s Destiny 30.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Blame J D 8.00 5 9-1
6 6 Souixper Charger 8.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Bandit Point 8.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Midnight Mistress 5.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Bella Runner 3.50 2.5 5-1
8 8 Run the Tap 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Decade of Dreams 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Emityaaz 15.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Beguine 3.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Royal Bonus 12.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 I Feel the Need 12.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Fast and Feminine 30.00 8.3 16-1
6 6 Star Table 8.00 9.1 17-1
3 3 Madelyn’s Magic 8.00 9.4 18-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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