March 6, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Light the Way | 0.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Tan | 20.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Freedom Factor | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blueridge Mountain | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Muscadine | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Armchair Jockey | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Dictator | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Grand Design | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Sky | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Itellyouthefacts | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cherokee Takeover | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ninejuanjuan Call | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Heavy Son | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bayou Sarge | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Judy’s Way | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Paytonsattheplate | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zandrea’s | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Glitterary | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Candy’s Parade | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | She a Hot Mess | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Stone Arch Bridge | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Moon Over Tuscany | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Latte Dolce | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thief of Hearts | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Supertaleofhoudini | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Joanie Gal | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wild America | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Budro Talking | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Standing Man | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shanghai Ronnie | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maga Man | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sydster | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Payday Too | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charlies Ticket | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Scary Larry | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prairie | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wild for Wycliff | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mists of Time | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ottoman Empire | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baltic Fleet | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Formal Order | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Love to Learn | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Melody Rose | 20.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | A Lot of Spunk | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Princess Renee | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Moorac | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fashion Moon | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Maw Maw’s Sophia | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Jewels | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Time for a Song | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Have No Fear | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Vision of Angels | 20.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Your Time’s Coming | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Papa’s Boy | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Deer Crossing | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cabo’s Rumor | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Amavi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mr. Four Sevens | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Like Mike | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Outlaw X. | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Imindycatbirdseat | 12.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Louisiana Moon | 12.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unrestricted | 5.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Reluctant Warrior | 6.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Drewcitable | 15.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | I’m d’Cat | 12.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Im a Cowboy Too | 3.50 | 14.9 | 28-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Orgeron | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Trader Price | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Autumn’s Super Ced | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cheatin Charlie | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hudson’s Turn | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Check Me Out | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jack Bob and Larry | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Deal With Him | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Nacho Biz | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.