Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, March 11, 2022

March 11, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Pac the Pulpit 15.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Verdunville 8.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Dignified N Krafty 20.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Charlie’s Town 3.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Bodee Bodee 4.00 8 15-1
5 5 Ole Stud Muffin 5.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Pa Pi 12.00 8.3 16-1
6 6 Yankee Hail Cat 6.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 Muletrain 3.50 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Chambliss 4.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Hot Le Roy 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Thunk 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Gallant Star 3.50 4.9 9-1
8 8 Steal It Back 5.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Pat Me Down 12.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Von Dom 8.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Custom Kat 3.00 7 13-1
4 4 Kinlee’s Song 12.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fahan 12.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Flying Fred 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Whiskey Gent 6.00 4 8-1
7 7 Mr. J. McKay 3.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Dover Strait 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Tonal Impact 2.50 5.3 10-1
4 4 Unorthodox 6.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Commercial Flash 12.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Jus My Imagination 4.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Galaxy Thirtysix 3.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Opps My Bad 8.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Platinum Sky 4.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Kick N Kiss 12.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 The Complete Court 12.00 8 15-1
6 6 Fairwell Tax Break 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Have No Fear 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Wish Upon a Star 3.50 1.7 3-1
6 5 Charli Michael 6.00 5 9-1
8 7 Grey Sloan 10.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Now Now Man 10.00 5.6 11-1
7 6 Peachy Mandate 8.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Bitsy’s Other Half 15.00 7 13-1
4 4 Bourbon St Tappin 3.00 7.5 14-1
9 8 Joeboy 12.00 8 15-1
5 5 Toe Bandit 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bel Aria 6.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 Raceday Attire 15.00 2 4-1
9 9 Abby the Bull Dawg 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Dream Music 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Gillian Elizabeth 3.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Vinegar Veggies 6.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Cajun Two Step 30.00 9 17-1
5 5 Zisisit (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Pinkaboo 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Zen (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Runpat 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Supercool 4.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 He’s Got This 8.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Jelly Nougat 8.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Old Hickory 8.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Runaway Ready 8.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Zap Motion 3.50 6.5 12-1
1 1 Shanghai Trick 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 9 Silver N Lai 6.00 6 11-1
10 11 Order for Porky 4.50 6.4 12-1
7 8 Takafumi (BRZ) 3.00 8 15-1
1A 6 My Bariley 4.50 8.3 16-1
1 2 Indy Tourist 4.50 SCRATCH
2 1 Gunnison 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Mishko 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Peacock Kitten 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Moonshine Now 6.00 SCRATCH
6 7 Gimme Some Mo 12.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Healing 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Gerrie Lou 20.00 2.9 5-1
1 5 Oak Hill Seniorita 3.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Looking Hot 3.50 3.8 7-1
8 9 Lucky Linda 3.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 My Avani 8.00 7.1 13-1
9 10 Reckless Sergeant 4.50 7.5 14-1
10 11 Julia’s Chance 30.00 10 19-1
1A 8 L G Girl 3.50 SCRATCH
5 4 Caesar’s Calpurnia 20.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Sayanotherprayer 20.00 10 19-1
4 3 Bad Gal Riri 10.00 10.3 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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