March 11, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pac the Pulpit | 15.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Verdunville | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dignified N Krafty | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Charlie’s Town | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bodee Bodee | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ole Stud Muffin | 5.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pa Pi | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Yankee Hail Cat | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Muletrain | 3.50 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Chambliss | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hot Le Roy | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thunk | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gallant Star | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Steal It Back | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pat Me Down | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Von Dom | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Custom Kat | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kinlee’s Song | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fahan | 12.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flying Fred | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Whiskey Gent | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. J. McKay | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dover Strait | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tonal Impact | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Unorthodox | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Commercial Flash | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jus My Imagination | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Galaxy Thirtysix | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Opps My Bad | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Platinum Sky | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kick N Kiss | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Complete Court | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fairwell Tax Break | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Have No Fear | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Wish Upon a Star | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Charli Michael | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Grey Sloan | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Now Now Man | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Peachy Mandate | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bitsy’s Other Half | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon St Tappin | 3.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Joeboy | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Toe Bandit | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bel Aria | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Raceday Attire | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Abby the Bull Dawg | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dream Music | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gillian Elizabeth | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vinegar Veggies | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cajun Two Step | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zisisit (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Pinkaboo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Zen (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Runpat | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Supercool | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | He’s Got This | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jelly Nougat | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Old Hickory | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Runaway Ready | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zap Motion | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shanghai Trick | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 9 | Silver N Lai | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Order for Porky | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Takafumi (BRZ) | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | My Bariley | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Indy Tourist | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Gunnison | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Mishko | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Peacock Kitten | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Moonshine Now | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 7 | Gimme Some Mo | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Healing | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Gerrie Lou | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Oak Hill Seniorita | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Looking Hot | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Lucky Linda | 3.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Avani | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Reckless Sergeant | 4.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Julia’s Chance | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | L G Girl | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Caesar’s Calpurnia | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Sayanotherprayer | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bad Gal Riri | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.