March 12, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | With Bells On | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beauxs Artes | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dolce Sera | 30.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | No One’s Laughing | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Goodmorning Angel | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cupids Girl | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Runabout | 0.80 | 0.8 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blood Moon | 15.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Even Thunder | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Magnetron | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vicar’s Legend | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Noble Thought | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Stanhope | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Conformist | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Great Workout | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Doublepour | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Mischief | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Magnificent Chrome | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Merchants of Cool | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bunty Windermere | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Carbon | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Royal Currency | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | See Me Now | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Merger of Equals | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Darn That Song | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Throwing Stars | 50.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Succulent | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Infeasible | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lefty’s War | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Boy Colton | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Left On Boylston | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Analysis | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Napoleon Complex | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Total Effort | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Question My Sanity | 30.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irie Spice | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Alpine Queen | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | A Ring Thing | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Mission | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Calescent | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chaysenbryn | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kerik | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Amity Island | 1.80 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Captivating Cara | 10.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mazal Eighteen | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bankers Daughter | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Cinderella’s Cause | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Violentiam | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Frosted Bourbon | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Snicket | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pretty Clever | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gentle Annie | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Little Ms Scarlet | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Towering Orbit | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Correction S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kept Waiting | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Letmetakethiscall | 20.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Prodigy Doll | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Easy to Bless | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Club Car | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dontletsweetfoolya | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Amedeus Music | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fast N Fearious | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Red D G P | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Texas Tower | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heymackit’sjack | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Got the Gold | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Raw Courage | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Joe Gonzalez | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pepper King | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alarming Mission | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | He’s Got It | 4.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.