March 20, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Nothingtoseehere | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Writeitontheice | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rational Choice | 0.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dreampoint | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | American Law | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Higher Quality | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bunty Windermere | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | See Me Now | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Royal Currency | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Twist Just Right | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Carbon | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Darn That Song | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Succulent | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Macho Boy | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wild Union | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Running Violence | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Truebelieve | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Irish Giant | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brockmoninoff | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Our American Star | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Exalted Charm | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charger | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tough Tickets | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jerusalem Gates | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Breaking Stones | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | D’vinicris | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quickflash | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Sugar Gray Leonard | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Torpedo Run | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Efficiency | 1.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rhumjar | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cathedral Beach | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Joe Brrrr | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Howe Street | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Awesome Aaron | 0.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Check That Chip | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Let Freedom Spring | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sharpoon | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magic Miner | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Union Lights | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Downtown Connector | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Two Thirty Five | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Little Menace | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pioneer Spirit | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Its All Relevant | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My First Grammy | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lil Commissioner | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Boldish | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cousteau | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dangerous Edge | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Number | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Group Hug | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Full Moon Fever | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Air Show | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Good Culture | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Haynesfield S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lobsta | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chestertown | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Brew Pub | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Last Buck | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Boy Tate | 1.80 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Water’s Edge | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fudge Brownie | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | High School Crush | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Betty’s Smile | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Katies Courage | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Infringement | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big Q | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Left Leaning Lucy | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | R Working Girl | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Charlotte Webley | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.