April 7, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Salute to America | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Royal Time | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Moped Dennis | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Joint Resolution | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Uncle Water Flow | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Barrel of Quests | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sensibleconclusion | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Curlin’s Wisdom | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Excursionniste | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sir William | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Constitutional Bid | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Early Glow | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tap the Faith | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Waters of Merom | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | London Gold | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Diamond Collector | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Air Show | 3.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | No Burn | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Charger | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dangerous Edge | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Road to Success | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Forever Wicked | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Jade’s Dream | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Run for Boston | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Sandro the Great | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Jumpster | 4.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Sundaeswithsandy | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Umbria | 4.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bureaucrat | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Uncle Curly | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Breadman | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Barleewon | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Kringle | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sonic Speed | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Remembermom | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cousteau | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Emperor’s Cause | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rock Sugar | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Brother Neil | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blu Grotto | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Centavo | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Prayer Book | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Addilyn | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Guns Blazing | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Girl Lexi | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Magnetique | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady by Choice | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sirenic | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Al’s Gal | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quality Stones | 5.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Trash Talker | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Scocciatore | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | American Gentleman | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | R Boy Bode | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Castle Chaos | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rejected Again | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dancing Buck | 2.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kawhi Me a River | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Juulstone | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tops the Chart | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Supply and Demand | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Lord Gatling | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hardly Working | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Angeli Blu | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fazaro | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | We Ready | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Any Minute | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Motion to Strike | 3.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mister J T | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Exceptional | 50.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Irie Spice | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Nicholas James | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.