April 10, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | Father Walsh | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Catch the Smoke | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Vibe Setter | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1A | 5 | Bustin Pietre | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Jokemeister | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Winter Son | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Credit Suspended | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My First Love | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ice Kreem Sundae | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Emerald Banker | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flight Forward | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Keen Dancer | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Phenomenal Woman | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Elegant Laoban | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Acceptable Risk | 0.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Exalted Charm | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | El Mayor | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Prince of Joy | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Breaking Stones | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dontbelate | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Midaswellrun | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Group Hug | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Full Moon Fever | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Perceived | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Purple Hearted | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Uno | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Evan Harlan | 0.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Heat’s On Zap | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ninth of April | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Run Smitty Run | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Islandman | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Starrystarryknight | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Missouri | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | R Boy Cheekum | 50.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Wegottaguy | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baltasar | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Inspiration Point | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hit by a Wave | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vinny Two Cents | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dot’s Dollar | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lord Licorice | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Smart Joker | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rhumjar | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Reigning Chick | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Franny Lu | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Home for Christmas | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Waterville | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pop the Bubbly | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Infringement | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jen’s Battle | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | That Is Key | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Top Flight Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Maiden Beauty | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Exotic West | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frost Point | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Battle Bling | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ice Princess | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Into Vanishing | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | War in Paradise | 30.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Whatlovelookslike | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Limani | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Arisaema | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Lady Yellen | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Saluki | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Menily | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Can’t Fool Me | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kannon Fire | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Our Jessica | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Linarite | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cape Cod Causeway | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | I’ll Go All In | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 14 | Vivazano | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 15 | Duckphat | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 16 | Frosty Invasion | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.