April 21, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Predicted | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nobodyridesforfree | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zuzudini | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Complete Agenda | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | American Law | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cheeky Tico | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Amore Fire | 6.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Closing Deals | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Classic Vinman | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tweaqued | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rooski | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lanfrankophile | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Frosted Indian | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blood Moon | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Matty’s Express | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flowers for Lisa | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | O Shea Can U See | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Parade Field | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nutzforboltz | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Healy’s Hope | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Runabout | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | New York’s Finest | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Bustin Shout | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Valmont | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Panster | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mission Wrapitup | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Swashbuckle | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gandy Dancing | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Bronx Bomber | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Saint Selby | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | More Graytful | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Tasty Wave | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eudaimonia | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mrs. Banks | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tonight We Love | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sweet Sugar Baby | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gracie O’Malley | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Reeley Psyched | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Roz | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Keen Dancer | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Live in Five | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | American Rule | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thundershook | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Warrior in Chief | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Someday Jones | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hammerin Aamer | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mexican Wonder Boy | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Striking Speed | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pioneer Spirit | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Mojovation | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sagamore Mischief | 20.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cost Basis | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Phil | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Last Buck | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big Engine | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jaxon Traveler | 2.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Immortalization | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Necromancer | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. J. McKay | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pipito | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ninth of April | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kobe’s Legacy | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Everesting | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Beckenbauer | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fazaro | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kentucky Knight | 2.50 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | Empire Ridge | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | R Boy Cheekum | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Sean the Hammer | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 14 | Kid Cash | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.