Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 13, 2022

May 13, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Incitatus 2.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Pretty Boy Elm 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Jingle 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Battle Creek 1.80 4.2 8-1
3 3 Icecap 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 O Cigano 12.00 4.5 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Dazzlingdominika 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Old School Flash 5.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Janet Is Ready 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Catcha Later Mo 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Phunk 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Ski Slope 2.50 4 8-1
5 5 Shesthebiggame 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Vicki Rose 15.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 K C Mo 15.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Jazzy Lady 2.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Ancient Brown 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Jump Into the Fire 0.80 3.3 6-1
3 3 Sense You Left 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Singsong Bird 12.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Malibu Marlee 12.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hawk of War 1.60 1.2 2-1
4 4 Courageously 1.80 3.4 6-1
7 7 Optimus Kat 6.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Uninvited Guest 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Epimythium 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Of the Moment 10.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Carmel Bay 20.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Malibu Time 15.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Kevalar 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Teewinot Pass 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Cindy’s Storm 10.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Hickory Court 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Jackys Back 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Fotheringay 2.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Bluebank 12.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Major Cam 8.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Keep On 15.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Yes to Mischief 3.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 A Paycheque Smile 6.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Four Dawn 4.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 My Coralena 10.00 4 8-1
5 5 High Fair 6.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Zmuda 4.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Thirteen Stripes 10.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Ipsum Gratus 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 More Romance 10.00 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Hashtag No Wonder 2.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Kerouac 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 World Cruiser 5.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 McGolden 3.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Habitus 15.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Rule the Empire 15.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Gullane 15.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Rio King 8.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Lolas Beau 30.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Tolkien 20.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Promise Keeper 2.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Buck Moon 4.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Major Fed 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Masqueparade 3.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Big Lake 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Twilight Blue 12.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Colonelsdarktemper 10.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Farmington Road 12.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Taishan 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 My Sixth Sense 20.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Out Work’n 3.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Moon Mischief 4.50 4.3 8-1
11 11 Hometown Hero 4.00 4.7 9-1
13 13 Popster 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 He’s a Keeper 12.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Offutt Cole 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Lend It Tewmey 4.50 6.5 12-1
8 8 Ferocity 12.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Better Dasher 20.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Congrats to Mi 20.00 6.8 13-1
12 12 East of India 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Amazing Rocket 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Bernie’s Weekend 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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