Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 14, 2022

May 14, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 American Hero 1.60 1.4 3-1
1 5 Cole Spur 2.50 2.5 5-1
2 1 Summer in Malibu 2.00 2.6 5-1
1A 6 Bureau 2.50 3.7 7-1
3 2 Prayforpeace 4.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Turnsandconditions 15.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tapalong 1.80 1.6 3-1
5 5 Marcie’s Candy 5.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Brunella 4.50 3 6-1
6 6 Russian Roulette 1.60 3.2 6-1
3 3 Smokin Hot Bobbie 15.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Sun Dress 15.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Bow Maker 30.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Runpat 2.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Sky and Sand 4.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Run Run Rapidash 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Lesson Learned (IRE) 10.00 5 9-1
6 6 Foliage 3.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Apache Tears 4.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Angkor 2.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Purple Dream 8.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Caramelito 10.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Chief Howcome 15.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dunvegan Doll 1.60 1.6 3-1
6 6 Avendore 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Wildcat Dream 12.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Nibbles 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Chopin Drive 2.50 4.2 8-1
7 7 Layla’s Song 15.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Kiss Theory 15.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Scales of Justice 2.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Kiss Principal 5.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Hellorhighwater 3.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Loving Lucky 4.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Mo Betta 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Drop Anchor 3.00 2.9 5-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 3 River Redemption 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Fightville 6.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Ferryboat 6.00 1.3 3-1
4 4 Tightwad 6.00 1.5 3-1
1A 9 Chase Tracker 3.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Money Pit 30.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Ronithelimodriver 8.00 1.6 3-1
3 2 Kidyounot 12.00 1.7 3-1
2 1 Sonic City 1.60 2.1 4-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Arrobatic 3.50 1.9 4-1
10 10 Schlofmitz 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Red Hot Mama 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Take the Backroads 8.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Princessofthenorth 12.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Zawish 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Walkathon 3.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Glenall (IRE) 3.50 5.5 10-1
11 11 Love to Run 10.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Fancy Martini 12.00 7 13-1
3 3 High Speed 30.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Quick to Blame 2.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Uncle Berley 3.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Grapnel 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Marvelousmoondance 8.00 4 8-1
8 8 Jedrek 20.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Fifty Cent Dollars 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Arrow Strike 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Curlin Lane 10.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 One America 12.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Commander Compton 12.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Mamzelle Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Twilight Gleaming (IRE) 1.20 1.5 3-1
2 2 Mystic Eyes 3.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Royal County 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Boxing Day 15.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Street Tapper 30.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Majestic d’Oro 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Sunday Grace 30.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Trobairitz 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Artos (IRE) 6.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Tizplenty 15.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Devine Charger 30.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Margie’s Kitchen 20.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Allworthy 4.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Gerri B 3.00 3 6-1
4 4 Remain Anonymous 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Liberty M D 2.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Ready for Change 10.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Jungle Juice (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 New Roo 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Malloy 12.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Beachfront Bid 2.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Chiromante (IRE) 12.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Robin’s Fantasy 8.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Easy to Love 5.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 My Lily Mae 4.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Poronui 10.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Aboukir Bay 10.00 5.2 10-1
14 14 Mindful 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Neck On the Nile 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Twirling Patti 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Treasure of War 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 She’s Gone 12.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 Paris Paramour 12.00 9.1 17-1
6 6 Twentytwenty Hoax 30.00 9.5 18-1
1 1 Bitty Boss 15.00 11.8 22-1
10 10 Forever Home 30.00 13.2 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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