May 14, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | American Hero | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Cole Spur | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Summer in Malibu | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Bureau | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Prayforpeace | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Turnsandconditions | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tapalong | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Marcie’s Candy | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brunella | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Russian Roulette | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Smokin Hot Bobbie | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sun Dress | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bow Maker | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Runpat | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sky and Sand | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Run Run Rapidash | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lesson Learned (IRE) | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Foliage | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Apache Tears | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Angkor | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Purple Dream | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Caramelito | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chief Howcome | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dunvegan Doll | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Avendore | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wildcat Dream | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nibbles | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chopin Drive | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Layla’s Song | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kiss Theory | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Scales of Justice | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kiss Principal | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hellorhighwater | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Loving Lucky | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mo Betta | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Drop Anchor | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | River Redemption | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Fightville | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ferryboat | 6.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tightwad | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Chase Tracker | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Money Pit | 30.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ronithelimodriver | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kidyounot | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sonic City | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Arrobatic | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Schlofmitz | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Red Hot Mama | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Take the Backroads | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Princessofthenorth | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zawish | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Walkathon | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Glenall (IRE) | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Love to Run | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fancy Martini | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | High Speed | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Quick to Blame | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Uncle Berley | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Grapnel | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Marvelousmoondance | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jedrek | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fifty Cent Dollars | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Arrow Strike | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Curlin Lane | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | One America | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Commander Compton | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Mamzelle Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Twilight Gleaming (IRE) | 1.20 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mystic Eyes | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Royal County | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Boxing Day | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Street Tapper | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Majestic d’Oro | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sunday Grace | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trobairitz | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Artos (IRE) | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tizplenty | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Devine Charger | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Margie’s Kitchen | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Allworthy | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gerri B | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Remain Anonymous | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Liberty M D | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ready for Change | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | New Roo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Malloy | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Beachfront Bid | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chiromante (IRE) | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Robin’s Fantasy | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Easy to Love | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Lily Mae | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Poronui | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Aboukir Bay | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Mindful | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Neck On the Nile | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Twirling Patti | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Treasure of War | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | She’s Gone | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Paris Paramour | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bitty Boss | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Forever Home | 30.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.