Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 15, 2022

May 15, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cairo Driver 2.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Eclipsed 3.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Moon Over Tuscany 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Kiss Me Smile 2.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 J Zertz 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 T. K.’s Joker 15.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tim Tal 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Sosua Summer 1.60 6.3 12-1
1 1 Faith Runner 12.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Touch Code 15.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Tempo Madness 15.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Chasing the Crown 3.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 Frontal Assault 20.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 Tepeu 4.00 9.3 18-1
6 6 Corrente de Ouro 30.00 9.5 18-1
5 5 Dini d’Amore 15.00 9.5 18-1
4 4 Spuns Son 30.00 11.2 21-1
8 8 Old Hickory 15.00 12.2 23-1
13 13 Trumpets Blare 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Wiking 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Blue Devil 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Bad to the Bones 12.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Best Bet 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Family Man 1.80 2.4 4-1
1 2 English Challenge 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Eagle Pass 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Tiz Light the Way 1.40 3.8 7-1
2 1 Bobby Baby 12.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 To Kalon 20.00 5.8 11-1
1A 7 Youvesaiditall 3.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Brown Delivers 3.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Master Lea 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Carnivore 4.50 4.1 8-1
8 8 Isthmian 6.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Proud Union 5.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Prince of Glory 8.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Dover Strait 20.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Winter’s Ghost 8.00 6 11-1
6 6 Bright Spark 15.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Beach Holiday 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bout Time 4.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Only Kidding 4.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Commanders Palace 20.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Cruz Bay 6.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Lady Danae 8.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Kona Kai 15.00 8.2 16-1
3 3 Sand and Sea 3.50 8.6 16-1
2 2 Sparkle of Hope 20.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Social Mandate 20.00 10.3 19-1
10 10 Nota Bene 15.00 10.3 20-1
12 12 Giverny 6.00 10.4 20-1
9 9 Blazing Summer 20.00 12.4 23-1
13 13 Her World (IRE) 1.20 SCRATCH
14 14 Miner’s Queen 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Pathetique 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Iron Lady Away 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Defender 1.40 3.2 6-1
7 7 Fore Left 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Ournationonparade 15.00 4 8-1
2 2 Established 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 C Falls 10.00 5 9-1
1 1 Fact Finding 2.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Hemp Heaven 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Kitodan 3.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Play Action Pass 6.00 5.1 10-1
4 3 Freedom’s Way 4.00 5.4 10-1
1 9 St Andrews 6.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Britain’s Kitten 12.00 7 13-1
5 4 Mr. Bouma 12.00 7.5 14-1
9 8 Gold Heritage 12.00 8.7 16-1
2 1 Maximum Impact 20.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Maintainer 20.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Double Clutch 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Setna the Wise 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Best Actor 2.00 SCRATCH
1A 13 Brooklyn Diamonds 6.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Soup and Sandwich 2.00 3 6-1
7 7 Divine Leader 3.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Coltonator 4.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Prime Factor 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Therideofalifetime 10.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Briefcase Bully 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Savvy 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Violent City 6.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Spare Cash 1.60 4 8-1
8 8 Madelyn’s Magic 12.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Spring Magic 6.00 6 11-1
11 11 Elle of the Ball 8.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Macadamia (FR) 6.00 8.2 16-1
7 7 Sacred Kitten 8.00 9.3 17-1
14 14 Get By 15.00 10.2 19-1
12 12 What’s to Do 15.00 10.2 19-1
10 10 Ragtime Belle 12.00 10.5 20-1
4 4 Neck On the Nile 12.00 10.9 21-1
9 9 Moudari 12.00 11.6 22-1
3 3 Todo Sola 20.00 11.8 22-1
2 2 Girl Come Running 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Pretty Provocative 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Reverb 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Mindful 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
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4th - 3:06
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Halftime
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9:26 3rd
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12:02 1st
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Final
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Bottom 8th
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Top 6th
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Top 8th
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