Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 23, 2022

June 23, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Latte Dolce 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Supertaleofhoudini 3.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Super Wonder Girl 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Mizbehaving Sis 3.50 2.9 5-1
6 6 Eclipsed 4.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 T. K.’s Joker 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ego 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 River Echo (GB) 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Bear Alley 1.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Rye Humor 3.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Unidentified Man 12.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Jurisdiction 20.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Majors Vindication 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Thatshowsherolls 12.00 1 2-1
2 1 Specializin 2.50 6.6 13-1
6 6 Dice Arm 3.00 7.4 14-1
3 2 Ayy Ladies 12.00 7.6 14-1
4 3 Go On Girl 3.50 7.6 14-1
1A 8 Corvina 8.00 8 15-1
1 5 Happy Clouds 8.00 8.2 15-1
7 7 Miss Addie Lynn 6.00 8.6 16-1
8 9 Tell Me When 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 6 Captain Fantastic 10.00 1 2-1
2 1 Stayin’ Out Late 2.50 1 2-1
7 8 Icon 3.00 1 2-1
6 7 Fed Money 4.50 1.4 3-1
3 2 Kiss Principal 4.00 3.5 7-1
4 3 Mo Betta 10.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Formal Order 5.00 4.9 9-1
1 4 Barstow 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fight Fiercely 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Nak Nak Bolt 12.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Sivako 6.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Tulsan 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Eakly 15.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 Two Phil’s 6.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Sailor’s Chance 10.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 Bluff City 15.00 2 4-1
8 8 Dakota Run 15.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 How Did He Do That 10.00 2.3 4-1
12 12 Arman 4.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Jeremy’s Jet 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lady Traveler 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Smarmy 2.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Duplicitous 6.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Code for Success 6.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Rookery 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Stellar Grace 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Wicked Wonder 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Intrepid Heart 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Masqueparade 1.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Whiskey Double 12.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Spa City 10.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 My Sixth Sense 15.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Silver Dust 4.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 You’re to Blame 30.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Fenwick Station 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 She’s Keen 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Insignia 1.60 1.4 3-1
8 8 Amenset 4.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Five Prizes 4.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Fine Cotton 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Cinq Souers 20.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 South Georgia 20.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Music Street 12.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Forever After All 20.00 8 15-1
1 1 High Resolution 20.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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