Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 24, 2022

June 24, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Curlin Lane 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Command Central 3.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Fotheringay 3.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 Super Brother 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Stavanger 3.50 4.5 9-1
3 3 Consider 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mejthaam 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Chopin Drive 2.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 Lady Mercedes 3.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Moudari 8.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Matle Valley 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Awesome Ally Vee 12.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 One Full Moon 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Earley Rose 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Ipsum Gratus 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Memphis Cash Queen 10.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Beach Kitten 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 World of Wonder 4.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Scenic View 4.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Backyard Hen 30.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Met in Miami 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Designer Ready 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 High Fashion 2.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Good Measure 1.80 2.2 4-1
2 2 Three Tipsy Chix 3.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Malibu Marlee 15.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Larimar 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Well Spent 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Off We Go 5.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Cherished 4.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Hypernova 4.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Girls a Bullet 5.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Tuckyourtaleandrun 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Knowing Glance 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 One Way Or Another 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Four Dawn 8.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Shared Future 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Zmuda 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Sweet Annabella 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 I Cross My Heart 4.50 6.5 12-1
7 7 Risata 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Pioneering Spirit 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Speed Bias 1.60 1.6 3-1
4 4 Scotland Yard 4.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Tim Tal 20.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Bourbon On Fire 12.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Wolfe County 8.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Aquacat 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Amani’s Eagle 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Thrive 4.00 1.6 3-1
1A 9 Vasariano 5.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Picasso 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Eli 20.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Protonic Power 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Isthmian 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Soros 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mahomey 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hornbeam 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Tricolour 15.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Chrome’s Right 3.50 4.5 9-1
6 6 Cabana Time 6.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Winter’s Ghost 10.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Honorable Vow 12.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Arrow Strike 5.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Officer Nick 4.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Mountain Ghost 15.00 8.9 17-1
3 3 Dudley 30.00 10.6 20-1
2 2 Bright Spark 15.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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