Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 25, 2022

June 25, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sweet Beauty 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Wildcat Dream 10.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Sure Wasn’t Me 3.50 2.7 5-1
9 9 Sconce 10.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Layla’s Song 15.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Slam Diego 4.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Mambo Kitten 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Dilmunia 10.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Je Suis Rapide 4.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Key of Life 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Unified Decision 12.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Summer Promise 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Watch This Munny 6.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Danse Macabre 10.00 2 4-1
2 2 My Butterfly 6.00 2 4-1
4 4 Topsy 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Justin’s Quest 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Sonic City 1.60 2.2 4-1
1 1 Spheroid 2.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 O Cigano 15.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Altered 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Market Development 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Storm Advisory 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 My Man Flintstone 4.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Skyscanner 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Muy Caro 5.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Yes Sir Robert 2.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Mason A. P. 15.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Areyoutalkingtome 15.00 5 9-1
7 7 Twobirdsonestone 30.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Charge the Line 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Fulsome 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Chess Chief 4.50 2.4 4-1
3 3 Twilight Blue 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Sprawl 6.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Mailman Money 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Background 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Heart Rhythm 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Queengol 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Alberta Sun 3.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Bombdiggity 3.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Makescentstous 15.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Love of My Heart 8.00 5 9-1
8 8 Sylvia Q 10.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Short Summer Dress 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Touch of Class 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Sunday Grace 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lucky Devil 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Engrave 2.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Inexorable 12.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Badgeball 4.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Veritable 5.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Sunday Breeze 8.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Lord Captain 15.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Call Me Fast 5.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Mr. Mariah 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Get Her Number 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Gun It 2.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 County Final 8.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Perfect Speighty 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Atoka 15.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Haunt 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Lykan 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Surveillance 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Rustler 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Chicago S.) – Chicago S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bell’s the One 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Four Graces 8.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Lady Rocket 2.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Pennybaker 8.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Bayerness 5.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Sconsin 2.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Kalypso 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Favorite Outlaw 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Right Tone 8.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Schmoozin 10.00 2.9 6-1
10 10 Ignitis 20.00 4 8-1
1 1 Olliemeister 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Respect the Code 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Top of the Charts 2.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Eyes of Glory 30.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Lofty Adjudicator 20.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Angkor 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Let My People Go 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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