Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 26, 2022

June 26, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Soaring Bird 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Bull Hollow 4.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Firery Tale 3.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Randello 3.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Honorary Degree 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Colonel Klink 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mataro 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Jeremy’s Jet 6.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Divemaster 8.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Musical Maestro 2.50 5.7 11-1
5 5 Accident 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Rungius 3.50 6 11-1
4 4 Stuck N Snow 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Revere Note 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 John Grey 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Book of Kells 4.50 2.6 5-1
9 9 Prove Right 4.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Uptown Social 15.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Loudmouthsoup 8.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Run Poppy 3.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Cinch Up 12.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Trepat 10.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Moriarty 20.00 9.7 18-1
5 5 Smart Prize 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 10 Enough Already 1.60 1 2-1
5 4 Unified Dreams 20.00 3 6-1
1 5 Strong Light 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Beyblader 8.00 3.2 6-1
1A 8 Faith Runner 6.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Perfect Flight 3.00 4.3 8-1
3 2 Old Hickory 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 3 Mistical Curlin 12.00 4.5 8-1
8 9 Mucho Mojo 5.00 6 11-1
2 1 Workinfromhome 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Shadow Matter 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Nakatomi 1.60 1.3 2-1
1 1 Hooperdrivesthboat 15.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Higher Standard 2.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Swiftsure 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Wild Popit 10.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Speitful Sam 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kingmeister 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Highestdistinction 5.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Policy Option 12.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Critical Threat 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Second of July 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Blue Jays 3.50 5.2 10-1
5 5 Pico d’Oro 15.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Endless Sunset 5.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Clear the Deck 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Cortese 4.00 1.3 3-1
1 1 Mardukas 15.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Midnight Dreaming 8.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Doc Ballard 8.00 4 8-1
10 10 Let Him Do 15.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Inspeightoftrainer 12.00 8.8 17-1
3 3 Cravens 4.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Missin Curfew 6.00 9.7 18-1
6 6 Ghent 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ari Oakley 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Hazy Command 4.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Social Dilemma 8.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Portilla 5.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Mercy Warren 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Minute Waltz 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Lavendar Lane 20.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Quick Munny 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Beautiful Farewell 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Dance It 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Saint Eros Girl 4.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Leave It Be 15.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Dorothea 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Timetable 10.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Hot Rumor 3.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Just Get It 10.00 8.2 15-1
4 4 Course Runner 5.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Stage Queen 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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