August 17, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Jonathan Sheppard H.) – Jonathan Sheppard H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Snap Decision | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Song for Someone (GER) | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Chief Justice (GB) | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Going Country (IRE) | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Down Royal | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Redicean (GB) | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Belfast Banter (IRE) | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Historic Heart (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | O’Trouble | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quick Return | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Winning Drive | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Casalsa | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Manifest Destiny | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greeley and Ben | 0.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mommasgottarun | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Perfect Provision | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wicked Happy | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Backed by Gold | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Handle the Truth | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Keen Dancer | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Game Theory | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Kemba | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | French Franc (FR) | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tales of Makenna | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Freedom Machine | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | I’m Buzzy | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Synonymous | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Invincible | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lemon Taffy | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Justifying | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mija | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Implicated | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Padma | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Socially Selective | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bulsara | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Souper Slews Cash | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Binsky | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Analogy | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Maritime Wings (IRE) | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mackillop | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Emboite (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hashtag No Wonder | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wish Me Home | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Seal Beach | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Legends Can’t Die | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 5 | Mo Rewards | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Nabokov | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Icarus | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 16 | Totalizer | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Malibu S S | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Unbridled Bomber | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2B | 15 | Funny Joke | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Warrior Johny | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | U Glow Girl | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crypto Mama | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Oh Donna | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Happy Warrior | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Amazon Barbie | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Red Hot Chick | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ruler of the Night | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Risk Free | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | U Guys Are No Fun | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Caramocha | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mia Bea Star | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Silken Dollar | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sunset Louise | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gringotts | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (New York Stallion Series S.) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Dakota Gold | 0.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Marinara Sauced | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shinsun | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Barrel of Quests | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Silent Running | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Born Dancer | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | He’s Got It | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cagney | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stop the Spread | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Tetragrammaton | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cafe Fleur (FR) | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ocean Air | 6.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Funwhileitlasted | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dixie Cannon | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Go Big Green | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Princess Pinky | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Boca | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bells On Her Toes | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Aziza | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | High School Crush | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | More Mango | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.