Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 1, 2022

September 1, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Michael G. Walsh Novice S.) – Michael G. Walsh Novice S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Decisive Triumph 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Scorpion’s Revenge (IRE) 3.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Lydford (GB) 10.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Freddy Flintshire 2.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Theocrat (IRE) 8.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Fast Vision (FR) 8.00 3 6-1
8 8 Perfect Tapatino (FR) 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Who’s Counting 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ragtime Blues 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Bronx Bomber 2.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Casalsa 2.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 In Sky We Trust 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Long Term Thinking 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Lost in Rome 6.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Musical America 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Influentialous 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Sirius Light 2.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Run for Cover 6.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Numero Seis 5.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Extessa 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Mrs. Cash Man 12.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Sly Sloane 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Ocean Honey 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Bourbon and Honey 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Value Engineering 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Bye Bye Melvin 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Flop Shot (IRE) 4.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Street Ready 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Glynn County 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 It’s a Gamble 12.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Claytnthelionheart 1.20 SCRATCH
7 7 Gentleman Joe 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 W W Fitzy 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sweet Willemina 4.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Bees and Honey 1.80 1.8 3-1
1 1 Lucky Peridot 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Family Time 4.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Like a Pro 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Inflation Nation (IRE) 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Clubhouse 10.00 1.7 3-1
12 12 Sustenance 10.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Balsa 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Listentothemusic 6.00 5 9-1
10 10 Antares 3.50 5.4 10-1
8 8 Bolt Above 12.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Mo Saturdays 6.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Gucci Boy 20.00 7 13-1
9 9 Texas Pride 20.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Sippican Shop 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Surprise Payoff 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Keep Left 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Tsuris 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Bernardo’s Legacy 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 11 Classic Lynne 8.00 1 2-1
2 1 Bella Conchita 10.00 4 8-1
9 9 Dream of Change (IRE) 2.50 4.1 8-1
4 3 Command Point 4.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Maybe Later 6.00 4.6 9-1
3 2 Rosemary Potatoes 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Masabeeh 6.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Our Jessica 12.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 I’m Buzzy 10.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Tapple Cider 20.00 8.1 15-1
1 4 Shaolin 8.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Monshun 1.60 SCRATCH
12 13 Dazzy 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Short Summer Dress 0.80 1 2-1
4 4 Melting Snow 5.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Rossa Veloce 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Invaluable 3.50 3.9 7-1
7 7 She’s a Black Belt 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Hydra 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 It Can 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Cowichan (IRE) 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Illicit 4.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Tell Me When 5.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Georgees Spirit 6.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Ticker Tape Home 6.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Gustiamo 10.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Up and Down 8.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 More Than a Diva 8.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Stars On Fire (IRE) 5.00 8 15-1
9 9 Sweetlou’sgotaces 15.00 8.2 16-1
10 10 Check Engine Light 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Binsky 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (P. G. Johnson S.) – P. G. Johnson S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lady Jasmine 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Be Your Best (IRE) 1.40 1.6 3-1
7 7 Damaso 15.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Recognize 8.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Whichwaze 10.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Pachuca 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Indian Spideroo 20.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Idea Generation (IRE) 2.50 3.5 7-1
9 9 Leave No Trace 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Once a Giant 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Scotto 20.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Be the Boss 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Got the Gold 4.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 B C Glory Days 15.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Lucky Brody 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Midaswellrun 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Lord Brownie 20.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Stud Puppy 30.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Power Agenda 4.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.