Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 4, 2022

September 4, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Disarmed 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Curly Larry and Mo 3.50 2.4 4-1
10 10 Chasin’ You 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Bobby the Tank 2.50 3.1 6-1
8 8 Vacation Dance 4.50 3.5 7-1
13 13 Twenty Six Black 4.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Nobilis 6.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Exalted One 20.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Joyful Ghost 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Tater and Tot 15.00 5 9-1
16 16 Radio Red 3.50 5.2 10-1
15 15 Somama Beach 15.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Hot Rod Lincoln 12.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Disco Demolition 10.00 5.7 11-1
14 14 Blue Soldier 15.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Excalibrate 20.00 7.5 14-1
Disarmed 17 32-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Greeley and Ben 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Happy Farm 1.40 2.2 4-1
6 6 Montauk Daddy 4.50 5.2 10-1
4 4 Hero Tiger 5.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Cold as Hell 10.00 6 11-1
1 1 Big Engine 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 State Crown 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Adelaide Miss 5.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Charge Account 3.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Vegas Weekend 1.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Blue Atlas 2.50 5.1 10-1
6 6 Athwaaq 8.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Linny Kate 20.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Girl of Tosconova 3.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Forever Dreaming 4.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Critical Threat 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Charger 6.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Cousteau 2.50 2.3 4-1
11 11 Forestwood Lane 15.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Ampersand 3.50 3.3 6-1
9 9 Breaking Stones 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Majestic Tiger 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Scorpion Dynasty 30.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Jade’s Dream 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Forever Wicked 20.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Willy Mc 12.00 8.2 15-1
Cousteau 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Golquist 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Sheriff Bianco 1.60 2.8 5-1
4 4 Me ‘n Sap 12.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Giramonte 8.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Hudson Overpass 30.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Storm Shooter 10.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Athenry 2.50 7.7 14-1
2 2 Courageoous Oh La 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Pure Pauline 3.00 1 2-1
1 5 Binsky 4.00 2.4 4-1
2 1 Take Charge Briana 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Vahva 10.00 5.6 11-1
3 2 St. Benedicts Prep 4.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 My Betsy 6.00 7.2 14-1
1A 9 Renegade Rebel 4.00 7.8 15-1
5 4 Stunningly 8.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Misintention 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Free Look 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Avant 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 6 Prouver 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 2 La Mazel 5.00 4.7 9-1
1A 12 Pallotta Sisters 6.00 4.9 9-1
2 8 Freydis the Red (FR) 4.50 7.2 14-1
2B 13 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 4.50 8.4 16-1
6 5 Thirty Thou Kelvin 10.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Selenaia (IRE) 6.00 9.2 17-1
5 4 Keep Left 12.00 9.9 19-1
8 7 Summertime Fun 20.00 9.9 19-1
13 15 Gifted 5.00 10.2 19-1
10 10 Writteninthestars 12.00 10.3 19-1
12 14 Welcometomyworld 8.00 11.9 22-1
11 11 Lemon Bomb 30.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Boston Post Road 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Mystic Eyes 10.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Palm Cottage 1.80 2.4 5-1
7 7 Dealing Justice 8.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Piece of My Heart 3.50 6.7 13-1
8 8 Movie Moxy 20.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Halo City 15.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Everyoneloveslinda 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 12 Catch That Party 2.00 1 2-1
12 13 Great Workout 1.20 3.5 7-1
1 4 Sundaeswithsandy 2.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Ach Du Lieber 50.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Beach Pass 50.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Mighty Meister 30.00 8.2 15-1
10 10 Citizen K 10.00 8.2 16-1
6 6 Lord Flintshire 6.00 8.5 16-1
2 1 Barrel of Quests 12.00 8.8 17-1
3 2 Eddie the Great 20.00 9.6 18-1
5 5 Frank’s Art 2.50 10.3 20-1
8 8 Top Envoy 12.00 11.5 22-1
4 3 Timbuktu 6.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 La Victoria 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Succulent 3.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Arisaema 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Cape Cod Causeway 5.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Can’t Fool Me 12.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Let Ur Light Shine 12.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Jocosity 4.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Lem Me Drink 10.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Mucho Mama Mia 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Spinaway S.) – Spinaway S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Wonder Wheel 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Apple Picker 30.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Naughty Gal 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Sabra Tuff 20.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Kaling 3.50 7.3 14-1
5 5 Just Cindy 5.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Aunt Shirley 5.00 8.2 16-1
2 2 Miss Georgie 30.00 8.8 17-1
6 6 Leave No Trace 8.00 9.7 18-1
10 10 American Rockette 6.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Mouly 5.00 1 2-1
1A 11 Jet Set Juliet 1.00 2 4-1
6 5 Quiet Type 15.00 3.1 6-1
9 8 Darn That Song 6.00 3.3 6-1
10 9 Roz 10.00 3.6 7-1
7 6 Dorothy’s the Boss 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Lemme Get It 10.00 7.4 14-1
1 10 Tough Street 1.00 8.5 16-1
8 7 Glocca Morra 15.00 8.5 16-1
2 1 Caiarossa 20.00 10.6 20-1
5 4 Carlann 30.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.