Del Mar Horse Racing Picks for Monday, September 5, 2022

September 5, 2022 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Written Dance 0 0-1
1 1 Tall Boy 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Prayforourcountry 5.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Pat’s Paddock Pick 1.80 2.1 4-1
3 3 Crowning Gold 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Written Dance 4.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Vinny the Coin 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Smokem Howard 50.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Gotcha Lookin 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Kirstenbosch 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Ole Silver 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Kristi’s Tiger 3.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Trouville 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Take a Leap 4.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Capstone Girl 10.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Smoothlikebuttah 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Picota (GB) 3.00 1 2-1
9 8 Sai Con (FR) 6.00 3 6-1
3 3 Trebbiano 8.00 3.8 7-1
11 10 Law Abiding 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Virat 3.50 4.5 9-1
2 2 To Speight Her 6.00 4.8 9-1
10 9 Honeymoon Suite 15.00 6 11-1
4 4 Apfel 6.00 8.4 16-1
8 7 Exclamation 20.00 10.3 19-1
1 1 Our Journey 20.00 10.7 20-1
13 12 Grazed 6.00 SCRATCH
14 13 Icy Flavor 15.00 SCRATCH
5 98 Storming Chrome 0.00 SCRATCH
12 11 Krahenbuhl 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Li’l Grazen 0 0-1
1 1 Seven Sisters 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 A Broken Breeze 3.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Li’l Grazen 2.50 3.3 6-1
7 7 Blame It On Rose 4.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Song of Fire 20.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Righteously 6.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Chrome of Our Own 10.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Sugar Kisses 10.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Lady Protonico 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Alvaaro 3.50 1 2-1
9 8 Tom’s Surprise 1.60 1.6 3-1
2 2 Niles Channel 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Big Buzz 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 6 Respect the Hustle 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Table for Ten 12.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Dillon Rocks 12.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Nolongerahobby 10.00 SCRATCH
6 98 Leprino 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Miss Baylee 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Don’t Ju Forget 4.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Backstreet Affair 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Mining Crypto 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Blazing Bardot 12.00 4.5 8-1
6 5 Tamarando Coast 12.00 5.8 11-1
13 12 Valentine Ghost 20.00 6.7 13-1
4 3 Fried Asparagus 5.00 6.7 13-1
10 9 Reluctant 30.00 7 13-1
11 10 Shez Our Arch 30.00 7 13-1
12 11 The Big Cake 10.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Big Seven 30.00 11.5 22-1
14 13 Shish Kabob 12.00 SCRATCH
3 98 J and M Express 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Tranquility Lake S.) – Tranquility Lake S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Samurai Charm 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Teddy’s Barino 2.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Velvet Slippers 2.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Ever Smart 12.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Bye Bye Bertie 6.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Lisette 8.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 La Castiglione 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Perfectible Lady 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Beachgrass 5.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Rock the Bourbon 10.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Run for My Honey 15.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Witch Moon 3.50 3.1 6-1
11 11 Ice Queen 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Girl Ranger 5.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Blossoming 8.00 5 9-1
6 6 Street Shadow 15.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Ropers N Wranglers 20.00 6 11-1
9 9 Movinglikeawinner 50.00 11.9 22-1
12 12 Noble Hearted 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Rvalentina 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Consternation (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Generous Portion S.) – Generous Portion S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Uncontrollable 0 0-1
Uncontrollable 0 0-1
8 8 Chismosa 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Fun Money 10.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Electric Lettuce 10.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 E Z Pharis 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Big Hopes 2.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Uncontrollable 3.00 5 9-1
1 1 Smiling Lady 15.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Yo Yo Mama 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Anmer Hall 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Handy Dandy 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Bally’s Charm 3.00 1.8 3-1
10 9 Clutch Hitter 4.00 2 4-1
9 8 Crosby Beach 8.00 3 6-1
11 10 Smuggler’s Run 10.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Irish Prophet 20.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Seven Wonders 15.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Almanera (IRE) 15.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Lucky Boss 30.00 6.6 12-1
8 98 Degree of Risk 0.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.