Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Monday, September 5, 2022

September 5, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Souffle 1.80 1 2-1
13 13 Showemyourheels 2.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Atomic Girl 3.00 3.3 6-1
14 14 Moonage Daydream 3.50 4.1 8-1
16 16 Boogie Down Bronx 4.00 4.5 9-1
10 10 Luna’s Song 4.50 4.6 9-1
12 12 Fleetfooted 5.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Bode’s Girl 6.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Spoils of War 8.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Three Girls 4.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Kara Para 6.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Slow Down Summer 6.00 10.2 19-1
9 9 Camp Akeela 12.00 10.8 20-1
6 6 Lady Quinn 12.00 11.3 21-1
2 2 Striking Melody 20.00 11.3 21-1
3 3 Reign of Thunder 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Blame It On Daddy 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Mr. Marlin 2.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Impressor 8.00 4 7-1
5 5 Atlanta’s Acuna 4.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Uncle Marty 6.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Somama Beach 15.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Hyper Speed 15.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Eternal Glory 20.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Flashy Alex 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Bernard Baruch H.) – Bernard Baruch H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Winters Back 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Emaraaty (GB) 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Dynadrive 6.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 City Man 1.60 2.9 5-1
1 1 Ocala Dream 10.00 3 6-1
2 2 Mouillage (FR) 2.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Unlock 4.00 1 2-1
13 13 True Empress 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Smokin’ Hot Kitty 6.00 7.2 14-1
15 15 Guajira 8.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Infringement 50.00 7.7 14-1
8 8 Mostly Harmless 15.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Union Dolly 4.50 9.1 17-1
4 4 Clara Belle 20.00 10.1 19-1
7 7 Crosstalk 15.00 10.9 21-1
6 6 Linn Pier 30.00 12.2 23-1
5 5 Tizmet 12.00 12.3 23-1
12 12 Silken Dollar 8.00 12.3 23-1
3 3 Crowding Out 1.00 13.6 26-1
11 11 My Delicious 50.00 14.8 28-1
9 9 Lemon Taffy 50.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 New York Banker 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Aidanike 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Spooky Road 8.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Daily Briefing 8.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Sister Supream 10.00 3 6-1
4 4 She Caught My Eye 3.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Backyard Money 1.80 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Waterville 4.50 1 2-1
9 10 Stella Mars 6.00 4.9 9-1
13 14 Caramocha 2.50 5.2 10-1
7 7 Lookin to Fly 12.00 6.5 12-1
4 3 Fist Full of Dice 12.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 U Guys Are No Fun 15.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Tales of Makenna 20.00 7.6 14-1
1 4 Whatlovelookslike 3.50 8 15-1
10 11 Russiarussiarussia 4.50 8.3 16-1
3 2 I’m Fine 10.00 8.8 17-1
1A 9 Just Ok Is Not Ok 3.50 10.6 20-1
11 12 Elegant Laoban 20.00 10.7 20-1
2 1 New Ginya 4.00 12.3 23-1
12 13 Sweet Mystery 1.60 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sounds Spooky 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Radio Red 5.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Arctic Arrogance 2.50 2 4-1
7 7 Pagett 15.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Leftembehind 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Garth Road 15.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Nobilis 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Ulumalu 15.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Wanna Winna 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Lt. Mitchell 15.00 5.2 10-1
Arctic Arrogance 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Bal Harbour 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Night Ops 6.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Healing 30.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 War Stopper 8.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Portos 4.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Grumps Little Tots 8.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Pioneer Spirit 15.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 American Tattoo (ARG) 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Air Attack 4.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Gentleman Joe 3.50 5.3 10-1
Grumps Little Tots 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Splendid Summer 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Rally Squirrel 10.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Digital Software 3.00 2.1 4-1
11 11 Inflation Adjusted 8.00 2.9 6-1
8 8 Maseta 12.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Reckless Spirit 4.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Voliero 8.00 5.4 10-1
13 13 Assiduously (GB) 15.00 6.1 11-1
15 15 Corkman 3.50 7.5 14-1
10 10 I Am the Law 20.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Parquetry 12.00 8.5 16-1
14 14 Calloway Peak 20.00 9.2 17-1
6 6 Sonic Speed 15.00 9.3 18-1
16 16 Bold Victory 1.60 9.6 18-1
3 3 Grecian Pharoah 30.00 9.9 19-1
9 9 War Strategy 8.00 10.3 19-1
Bold Victory 17 32-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Jane Grey 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 More Ammo 8.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Mashnee Girl 8.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Cocktail Moments 5.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Shalimar Gardens 3.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Wicked Hot 6.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Minute Waltz 10.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Len Lo Lady 8.00 8.2 16-1
6 6 Big City Momma 12.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Vienna Code 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Hopeful S.) – Hopeful S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Forte 0 0-1
4 4 Gulfport 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Mo Strike 2.50 4.5 9-1
2 2 Forte 3.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Bourbon Bash 6.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Western Ghent 30.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Blazing Sevens 4.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tosconova Beauty 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Fancy Feline 6.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Tellaperfecttale 10.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Bankers Daughter 12.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Ribot’s Valentine 5.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Missing Link 20.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Steal My Heart 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Juliana’s Rose 10.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Liberty Flame 15.00 10.3 19-1
11 11 Sue Ellen Mishkin 6.00 10.6 20-1
1 1 Cupid’s Heart 3.50 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.