September 16, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Time for Cupid | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Doozy Batz | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Landed Gentry | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Love of My Life | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Honeycomb | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cami Cat | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dogwoodsmilliejane | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Storm Haven | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Headland | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tipsy Gal | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sterling Miss | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Makescentstous | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Front Street | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My My Munny | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prove Right | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 3 | 3 | Frosted Departure | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | X Y Point | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | I’m Wide Awake | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Judo | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Counterspy | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prove Right | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Gordy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lantern’s Candy | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Frosted Diamond | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Domitia Lucilla | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Truffles | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | McMansion | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Coastal Charm | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Liznow | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Quinzel | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Recker Point | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Welaka | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 3 | B Minor | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 7 | Wadsworth | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Solomon Vandy | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1A | 11 | Face Value | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Kicksandgiggles | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Presider | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 6 | Cyclone Mischief | 6.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Prosecution | 10.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Idratherbeblessed | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Tahoe | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | Speed Boat | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Halftime | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lake Tahoe | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Icon | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Drop Anchor | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bronze Beast | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vasilevskiy (IRE) | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Plemmonston | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Soviet | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Futuro | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hay Sport | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeitlos | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 11 | 11 | Moon Magic Chrissy | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | She’s Jersey Tuff | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Squared | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Rose | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Magical Lute | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rum Runner Ready | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bolted | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Callie’s Passion | 8.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Zeitlos | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Batucada | 3.50 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Taxed | 15.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Huntleigh | 12.00 | 13.5 | 25-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Adiva | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Tiny Temper | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Malawnia | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Dagmar | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Liberty M D | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Recoded | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lovemesomeme | 1.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Be Like Water | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pyramid Princess | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lil Kings Princess | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Will’s Secret | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Zoomer | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Digital | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | We All See It | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Meister | 4.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dreamer’s Disease | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tequilas Ranger | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Briefcase Bully | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Simovitch | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Super Constitution | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Business Model | 5.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Broken Rib | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Dallas Volunteer | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zmuda | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Jumakan Bourbon | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mrs. Nushi | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Guajira | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Believing | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Forever Home | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zing | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | More Romance | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sonador | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Monocacy | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Green Bananas | 10.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Gran Chemin | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.