Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 16, 2022

September 16, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Time for Cupid 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Doozy Batz 1.40 1.9 4-1
4 4 Landed Gentry 20.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Love of My Life 12.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Honeycomb 3.50 4 8-1
5 5 Cami Cat 12.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Dogwoodsmilliejane 20.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Storm Haven 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Headland 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Tipsy Gal 2.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Sterling Miss 2.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Makescentstous 12.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Front Street 3.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 My My Munny 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Prove Right 0 0-1
3 3 Frosted Departure 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 X Y Point 2.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 I’m Wide Awake 10.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Judo 2.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Counterspy 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Prove Right 8.00 3.4 7-1
7 7 Mr. Gordy 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lantern’s Candy 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Frosted Diamond 3.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Domitia Lucilla 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Sweet Truffles 5.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 McMansion 10.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Coastal Charm 4.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Liznow 10.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Quinzel 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Recker Point 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Welaka 12.00 3.2 6-1
4 3 B Minor 4.50 4.1 8-1
1 7 Wadsworth 4.00 4.6 9-1
3 2 Solomon Vandy 4.50 5 9-1
1A 11 Face Value 4.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Kicksandgiggles 15.00 7 13-1
10 10 Presider 15.00 7.5 14-1
7 6 Cyclone Mischief 6.00 9.4 18-1
6 5 Prosecution 10.00 10.2 19-1
9 9 Idratherbeblessed 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Lake Tahoe 0 0-1
5 5 Speed Boat 12.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mr. Halftime 10.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Lake Tahoe 4.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Icon 2.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Drop Anchor 4.50 2.9 6-1
11 11 Bronze Beast 30.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Vasilevskiy (IRE) 4.00 6 11-1
1 1 Plemmonston 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Soviet 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Futuro 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Hay Sport 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Zeitlos 0 0-1
11 11 Moon Magic Chrissy 5.00 1 2-1
12 12 She’s Jersey Tuff 30.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Lady Squared 8.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Perfect Rose 50.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Magical Lute 4.00 8 15-1
4 4 Rum Runner Ready 12.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Bolted 6.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Callie’s Passion 8.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Zeitlos 8.00 10 19-1
9 9 Batucada 3.50 12.2 23-1
3 3 Taxed 15.00 13.4 25-1
10 10 Huntleigh 12.00 13.5 25-1
14 14 Adiva 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Tiny Temper 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Malawnia 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Dagmar 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Liberty M D 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Recoded 5.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Lovemesomeme 1.60 3.7 7-1
3 3 Be Like Water 15.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Pyramid Princess 20.00 6 11-1
2 2 Lil Kings Princess 10.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Will’s Secret 2.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Zoomer 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Digital 3.50 6.2 12-1
3 3 We All See It 15.00 7 13-1
10 10 Meister 4.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Dreamer’s Disease 12.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Tequilas Ranger 30.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 Briefcase Bully 8.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Simovitch 15.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Super Constitution 20.00 9.1 17-1
9 9 Business Model 5.00 9.8 18-1
5 5 Broken Rib 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dallas Volunteer 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Zmuda 6.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Jumakan Bourbon 5.00 2.7 5-1
11 11 Mrs. Nushi 10.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Guajira 15.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Believing 8.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Forever Home 10.00 5 9-1
5 5 Zing 4.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 More Romance 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Sonador 10.00 6.3 12-1
12 12 Monocacy 15.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Green Bananas 10.00 10.2 19-1
13 13 Gran Chemin 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.