Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 18, 2022

September 18, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Stupendous 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Gin N Sin 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Sweet Valeria 15.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Start Class 30.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Contessina 2.50 5.1 10-1
6 6 Bird Hunter 6.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Afleet Arlene 12.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Marina’s Gold 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Frigid Lady 1.40 1 2-1
7 7 She’ll Never Know 3.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Marsanne 4.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Unified Decision 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 My Lady Luna 12.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Captive Star 12.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Tamara’s Way 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bargain Hunter 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tonal Impact 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Mr Creed 2.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Moon Dog 12.00 2 4-1
1 1 Kiss Principal 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Yono 4.50 4.7 9-1
5 5 Mega Charlie 3.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Easy Big Boy 3.00 1 2-1
11 10 Collectorate 8.00 5.1 10-1
1 12 Trepat 3.50 5.9 11-1
7 6 Talkscheap 8.00 6.1 11-1
8 7 Bread Winner 8.00 7.6 14-1
9 8 Gold Luck 4.00 7.7 15-1
5 4 Olazabal 12.00 8.6 16-1
2 1 Once Upon a Dream 6.00 10.5 20-1
12 11 Dixie Fury 15.00 11.3 21-1
10 9 Ransam Paynter 12.00 11.4 21-1
4 3 Loony 20.00 11.5 22-1
3 2 Tizride 20.00 11.6 22-1
1A 13 Hill of Tara 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dawnland 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Cant Be Touched 2.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 High Speed 5.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Feeling Happy 6.00 1.9 3-1
4 4 I Cross My Heart 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Mohaylady 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Maasai Warrior 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Absolute Courage 4.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Bourbon On Fire 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Town Branch 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Chiron 12.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Mint 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Redemption Time 12.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Rampatious 15.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Fair Dinkum 6.00 8 15-1
4 4 Mo Happy 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Wits and Wagers 20.00 1 2-1
11 11 Fee 5.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Windy Bay 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Save Your Tears 15.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Saenz 4.00 7 13-1
12 12 Pretty Mischievous 3.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Souper Explosive 6.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Klassy Bridgette 8.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 Positano Sunset 15.00 9 17-1
10 10 She’s Magic 15.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Graceful Union 15.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Paint Me Perfect 20.00 9.9 19-1
16 16 Into Love 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Star Pose 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Indy Again 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Roman Goddess 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Mount Athos 1.40 1 2-1
9 9 Pure Panic 12.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Emerald Express 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Shackleford Strong 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Alebrije 15.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Belfast Boy 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Lucky Promise 20.00 5 9-1
8 8 Red Label 12.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 El Franco 20.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Hot Pastrami 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Roc’s Princess 20.00 1 2-1
4 4 Duplicitous 12.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Implosion 15.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Ice Orchid 4.00 3.8 7-1
14 14 Aunt Naughty 6.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Take Care 3.50 5.6 11-1
7 7 Stanley Market 15.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Bella Runner 12.00 6.6 13-1
12 12 Rockie Causeway 15.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Dame Joviale 12.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 Dorothea 6.00 8.6 16-1
15 15 Ring Me Darling 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Respectful 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Outlining 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Nosilverspoonshere 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shipman 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Workinfromhome 30.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 York Tavern 10.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Call Me Fast 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Reserve Currency 4.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Eagle Feather 30.00 7 13-1
9 9 Boco 30.00 7.9 15-1
11 11 Higginson 4.00 9.7 18-1
10 10 Majestic Flag 12.00 10.2 19-1
4 4 Electromagnetic 10.00 10.3 20-1
5 5 Lysander 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.