September 21, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Violent Gigi | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Beverly’s Charge | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Heavenly Trip | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | West Warpath | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chasin Charlie | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tillis | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Eli | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Z U At the Races | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Cortese | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Saturn Boy | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Inspeightoftrainer | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Making Moves | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Winters Lion | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eight Straight | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Klimtomaniac | 10.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Must Be the Money | 8.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ranseur | 10.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Plenty of Time | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hitsville | 12.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Perfect Upstart | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Golden Reign | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Freezing Point | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Highway Robber | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Moncrief | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fabricate | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nana’s Gray | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Epicurean | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blossom Road | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Smile At the Storm | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Edgee Angel | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Joy Enamorada | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shezz Koldazice | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4 | Moliere | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Knight’s Cross | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Thru the Vine | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 3 | Improbable Story | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Altered | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Rye Humor | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Money for Mischief | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Jurisdiction | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Majors Vindication | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1A | 2 | Jingle | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Big Bad Diva | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sunny Isle Beach | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pretti Xtreme | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | She’s a Dime | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Family Time | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Malibu Marlee | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Bets | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Dontyouremember | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Macho Villa | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Happy Is a Choice | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | King d’Oro | 3.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Golden Fate | 4.50 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Single Dot Yaht | 6.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Protege | 10.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Street Swagg | 5.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Diversiful | 10.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Egyptian King | 12.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lugan Knight | 15.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | My Imagination | 20.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Seas of Normandy | 20.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Fliparino | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mabuhay | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Joint Venture | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Queens Jules | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 6 | 6 | Beverly Park | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wild Behavior | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flamingo Hawk | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Don’t Forget | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Alexandros | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | The Queens Jules | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Medicine Tail | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Soaring Bird | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | My Man Flintstone | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Burninhunkoflove | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Overtaxed | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hoist the Gold | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tejano Twist | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Texas Red Hot | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kavod | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ruggs | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Longshadow | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baronne | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 6 | 6 | T Money | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Offutt Cole | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Awesome Charge | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Baronne | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Rikio | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Right of Rush | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ike and Jack | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Genius | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Mariah | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Pyrite | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Pitch Dark | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lookinforexcitemen | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Triple Chrome | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Private Connie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.