September 23, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Drena’s Star | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Honorary Degree | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zelig | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rock On Kitten | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Higher Authority | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Drewzano | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Code Name Kate | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sparkle of Hope | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Demaree | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Divine Hope | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Social Mandate | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbina | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ubiquitous | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big Nick | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Desoto’s War | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sag Harbor | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hot Pastrami | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gormleys Got Game | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jake Rocks | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Oncoming Train | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Chipmunk | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lily’s Creed | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Julia’s Chardonnay | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Controlled Fire | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Holiday Necklace | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Envoy | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Credit Committee | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lead Singer | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ontothenext | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sweet Slew | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Rag Town | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laytown | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| 7 | 7 | Gate Runner | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ten Gauge | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bold Looker | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Raid | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bright Spark | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Laytown | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Order of Merit | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Away From Home | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Shadow Matter | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spankhurst | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mo’s Mojo | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Aggressivity | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sounion | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Trappe Valley | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Caramelito | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Masai Man | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Adalinda | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Excellent Question | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flowerdew | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Creative Di | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Willow Bend | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Song of Storms | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Market Profile | 6.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ghostly Girl | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tabor Time | 10.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indy Again | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | La Perla Nera | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Methodology | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Wings of an Angel | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cancel This | 15.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ring Me Darling | 8.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Portilla | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Backyard Money | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kant Believe It | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Romance Novel | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | More Than Vows | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fine Family | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Comedy Act | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Jalen Journey | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kneedeepinsnow | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Mucho | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bango | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | He’smyhoneybadger | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Long Range Toddy | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | South Bend | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Eastern Bay | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Childers | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 11 | 11 | True Prodigy | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Golden Reign | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tom’s Spirit | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Freezing Point | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Born Flawless | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Highway Robber | 12.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moncrief | 12.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rate Confirmation | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mogul Crack | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Giroovin | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.