Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 24, 2022

September 24, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Silencing 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Joezine 8.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Only Show in Town 3.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Candy Island 2.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Yellow Creek Road 3.50 4.9 9-1
5 5 Isabis 20.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Boots n’ Jeans 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Shez Fired Up 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Amongst Friends 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Flags Up 5.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Dark Timber 3.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Spend Benjamins 15.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Cold as Hell 5.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Master of Arms 5.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Constitutional Law 2.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Swiss Guard 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Dixie Fury 12.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Lord Grantham 4.00 3 6-1
6 6 Mobot 5.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Warhorse West 10.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Big Beemster 12.00 7.2 14-1
13 13 My Sweet Lord 12.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Talk to Tokey 15.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Eternally Grateful 8.00 7.7 14-1
9 9 Santino’s Fantasy 20.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Mataro 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Shortly 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Full Mag 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Catchusifyoucan 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Aidanike 1.80 2 4-1
7 7 Cadeau de Paix 4.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Habobanero 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Jills Passion 8.00 6 11-1
4 4 Radiantrithym 5.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Funnybet 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tommy Gun 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Per Diem 4.50 1.3 2-1
9 9 C J All the Way 10.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Papa Rocket 4.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Paid in Full 15.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Golden Luna 12.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Cat Five 15.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Apollo Rising 15.00 10.4 20-1
12 12 Left Pocket Money 30.00 10.9 21-1
3 3 Dormir 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Strings 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Guided Arrow 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Birthday Munnings 3.00 1 2-1
2 1 Premium 4.50 3.5 7-1
10 10 Zed 4.00 4.9 9-1
14 14 Chitwood 8.00 8.7 16-1
12 12 Carcano 8.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Coal Boss 15.00 9.3 18-1
7 7 Shaky Pants 12.00 9.4 18-1
3 2 Solar Power 10.00 9.4 18-1
1 6 Fliparino 12.00 9.5 18-1
4 3 Shake Up 10.00 9.5 18-1
11 11 Joint Venture 15.00 9.8 19-1
6 5 Monba Quake 20.00 9.9 19-1
1A 15 Devils Red 12.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Mislead 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Be Ruthless 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Seneca Overnight S.) – Seneca Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Turnerloose 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Falconet 3.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Cocktail Moments 2.00 3 6-1
6 6 Skratch Kat 5.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Valentina Day 15.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Sixtythreecaliber 10.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Take a Stand 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Harrods Creek S.) – Harrods Creek S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Conagher 1.20 1 2-1
7 7 Gunite 1.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Double Thunder 12.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Friar Laurence 20.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Strava 6.00 4 8-1
3 3 Hippodrome 30.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Editorial Comment (ARG) 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Dogwood S.) – Dogwood S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Echo Zulu 1.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tarabi 4.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Gunning 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Colorful Mischief 8.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Last Leaf 10.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Chasing Fireflies 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Wicked Halo 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Bourbon Trail S.) – Bourbon Trail S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Creative Minister 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Home Brew 2.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 War Campaign 15.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Gilded Age 3.50 4 8-1
4 4 Warrior Johny 3.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Big Blue Line 20.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Ethereal Road 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Maximum Impact 30.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Saint Tapit 4.50 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Through the Cracks 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Ladan 30.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Frostalicious 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Birdie Rose 2.50 8.6 16-1
5 5 Cosmic Rewind 12.00 10.3 19-1
2 2 Peaceful Moment 8.00 10.4 20-1
4 4 Dooit 8.00 10.6 20-1
11 11 Happysecret 6.00 10.7 20-1
3 3 Tribal Spirit 10.00 11.1 21-1
7 7 Ring Twice 15.00 11.2 21-1
12 12 Pioneer Parade 8.00 11.4 22-1
10 10 Blaze Beauty 20.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.