September 25, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Indimaaj | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | What a Country | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | King’s Mischief | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mine Own Star | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jammers Justice | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carmel Bay | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Idratherbeblessed | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chelonian | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Canal | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Airtime | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prince of Roses | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | He’s a Good Dancer | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Martini Shot | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hill of Tara | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fine Cotton | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Forever After All | 1.20 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Music Street | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Calm Inspiration | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fragrant | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shezapistol | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pistol | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Waywardness | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gardenly | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hashtag Winner | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Judy’s Way | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sonador | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Backyard Hen | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cause to Cruise | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ferryboat | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Generator | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hellorhighwater | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zoffa | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Barstow | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kidyounot | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Mountain Ghost | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Boldish | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Backsideofthemoon | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Air Attack | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Silver Dust | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | On a Spree | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frosted Grace | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | All West | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Stand Proud | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gut Feeling | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Inexorable | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Floki’s Flight | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Autopolis | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shakedown Street | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Get Through | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beyblader | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | B G Lee | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Promises to Dance | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Altered Shot | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Republique | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chasing Fireflies | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ready for Change | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Magic Quest | 2.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Girolamo’s Attack | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Higher Standard | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Verb | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Casanova Kitten | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gagetown | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Edge to Edge | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spankster | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Coltonator | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Silk Trade | 4.50 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Baby Got Backspin | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Class | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hoosier Philly | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Roman Goddess | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Two Item Saver | 10.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mighty Madison | 10.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Into Love | 8.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Boardwalk Queen | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Marvelette | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Puffin | 12.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Foxpass | 20.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Tell Me When | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Jersey Pearl | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Optimizme | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Tivali | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Saucy Secret | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.