Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 25, 2022

September 25, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Try SFTB Plus for Free

$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.

Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!

Learn More

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Indimaaj 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 What a Country 2.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 King’s Mischief 3.50 4 8-1
1 1 Mine Own Star 3.50 4.5 8-1
6 6 Jammers Justice 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Carmel Bay 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Idratherbeblessed 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Chelonian 3.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Canal 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Airtime 6.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Prince of Roses 4.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 He’s a Good Dancer 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Martini Shot 15.00 5 9-1
8 8 Hill of Tara 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fine Cotton 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Forever After All 1.20 1.6 3-1
5 5 Music Street 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Calm Inspiration 3.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Fragrant 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Shezapistol 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Pistol 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Waywardness 5.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Gardenly 2.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Hashtag Winner 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Judy’s Way 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Sonador 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Backyard Hen 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cause to Cruise 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Ferryboat 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Generator 15.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Hellorhighwater 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Zoffa 10.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Barstow 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Kidyounot 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Mountain Ghost 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Boldish 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Backsideofthemoon 2.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Air Attack 3.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Silver Dust 4.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 On a Spree 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Frosted Grace 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 All West 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Stand Proud 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Gut Feeling 3.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Inexorable 5.00 3 6-1
4 4 Floki’s Flight 2.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Autopolis 20.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Shakedown Street 6.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Get Through 12.00 6 11-1
2 2 Beyblader 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 B G Lee 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Promises to Dance 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Altered Shot 3.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 Republique 3.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Chasing Fireflies 10.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Ready for Change 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Magic Quest 2.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Girolamo’s Attack 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Higher Standard 4.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Verb 8.00 4 8-1
4 4 Casanova Kitten 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Gagetown 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Edge to Edge 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Spankster 4.50 6.3 12-1
7 7 Coltonator 15.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Silk Trade 4.50 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Baby Got Backspin 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 High Class 4.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Hoosier Philly 8.00 9.1 17-1
3 3 Roman Goddess 8.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Two Item Saver 10.00 9.6 18-1
10 10 Mighty Madison 10.00 9.7 18-1
13 13 Into Love 8.00 9.8 19-1
4 4 Boardwalk Queen 20.00 10.1 19-1
5 5 Marvelette 20.00 10.3 19-1
8 8 Puffin 12.00 10.3 20-1
2 2 Foxpass 20.00 10.3 20-1
14 14 Tell Me When 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Jersey Pearl 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Optimizme 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Tivali 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Saucy Secret 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.