Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 29, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Dre Me Less 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Reina Bella 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Tequila Empire 2.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Perfect Rose 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Truism 4.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Frosty Diva 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sugoi 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Spa City 1.60 1.1 2-1
4 4 My Sixth Sense 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Palace Coup 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Galerio 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Amaryllis 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Cotton Candy Annie 3.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Janis Joplin 0.80 1.5 3-1
1 1 Big Dig 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Steel Racer 15.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Basilica D Oro 20.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Stage Bell 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fantail (GB) 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Pontiffany 10.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Moudari 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 More Romance 4.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Super Cat Lady 4.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Verklimt 4.50 4.9 9-1
5 5 Monocacy 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Beach Kitten 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Everyotherwon 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Girls a Bullet 6.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Beachside Bunny 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 My My Munny 5.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Clever Tale 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Diamond Lydiamarie 8.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 World of Wonder 2.50 6.9 13-1
5 5 Super Wonder Girl 4.50 8.7 16-1
4 4 Kitty’s Promise 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Accident 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Tres Soles 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Devils Red 8.00 5.5 10-1
12 12 Sir Rock 8.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Reagan 10.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Major Blue 12.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Tapping Out a Tune 12.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Crepe Yarns 20.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Western Command 15.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Mackman 15.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Mobster 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Double Barrel 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Big Hat Willie 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Be Ruthless 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Misty Veil 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Smarmy 6.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Salute the Flag 2.50 2 4-1
6 6 Designer Ready 5.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Microcap 3.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Jungle Juice (IRE) 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Slim Man 2.50 1 2-1
11 11 Mahoney Road 3.50 2.2 4-1
9 9 Street Fight 8.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Rumble Ready 8.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Beyblader 12.00 6 11-1
10 10 Kenric 20.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Derivative 6.00 9.9 19-1
2 2 Tebow 20.00 10.4 20-1
7 7 Vale 10.00 10.8 20-1
8 8 Rough Sketch 10.00 10.8 20-1
6 6 Triple Option 10.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.