Delaware Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 29, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Even Thunder 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Vicarage 3.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Morocco 2.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Pay the Kid 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 It’s Fate 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Albertano 4.50 6.4 12-1
4 4 So Long Chuck 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Tappin for Glory 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Frosted Indian 1.50 1 2-1
3 3 My Man Pots N Pans 2.50 1.1 2-1
6 7 Event Party 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Roan Mountain 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Northern Ridge 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 My Danny Boy 12.00 SCRATCH
1A 6 Boss Logic 1.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Gettin’downonit 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Artico 3.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 In God’s Time 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 3 Word for Word 6.00 6 11-1
12 12 Collection Day 5.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Cripple Creek 10.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Duke of Gloucester 6.00 8.7 16-1
1 5 Uncaptured Storm 15.00 8.9 17-1
5 4 Hop and Scotch 12.00 9.3 18-1
2 1 Narciso Dali 12.00 10 19-1
11 11 Chief Harlan 12.00 10.3 20-1
13 13 Jeby 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Battleoflexington 20.00 SCRATCH
1A 15 Stellar Lute 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Battuta d’Oro 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 9 Legal Deal 2.00 1 2-1
7 8 Where Paradise Lay 3.00 1.9 4-1
5 4 The Sicarii 4.00 2.5 5-1
1A 7 Band On Tour 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 Expensive Style 12.00 3 6-1
3 2 Omaha Red 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Rebel Empire 15.00 7.2 14-1
1 5 He Hate Me 6.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Chief Ron 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Passion Plus 10.00 1 2-1
9 9 Miss Delicious 8.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Queen Macha 15.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Surya 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 I’m Blushing 4.50 4.4 8-1
4 4 Cerulean 15.00 5 10-1
8 8 Mosalah 15.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Amunet 8.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Corinna 3.50 6.4 12-1
5 5 Three Coins 20.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Closet Shopper 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Inanna’s Quest 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Purrfect 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Amazon Queen 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (First State Dash S.) – First State Dash S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Midnight Trouble 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Riccio 1.80 1.9 4-1
3 3 Lost Weekend 12.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Bandits Heart 2.50 3 6-1
5 5 Howgreatisnate 6.00 5 10-1
4 4 Swifty Devil 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Cold Feet 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 About Today (ARG) 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Chess Master 2.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Blessed Arion 10.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Runningwscissors 4.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Defend 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Redeem Eddie 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 No Cents 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Classicstateofmind 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mine Not Mine 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Ruthenian 2.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Midnight Trick 12.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Mr Boldacious 1.80 4.9 9-1
6 6 I Am It 10.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Sailor Speed 8.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Rocky Dice 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Mo Wine Please 12.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.