Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 30, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 North Pole 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Super Quality 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Fazaro 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Order of Magnitude 2.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Abundant Honor 1.60 4.3 8-1
2 2 Sharpoon 20.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Disengage 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lia Marina 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mischievous Dream 3.00 3 6-1
4 4 Strong Odor 4.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Mail Order 2.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 The Important One 6.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Stop War 8.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Mademoiselle Nova 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Short Summer Dress 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Customerexperience 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Succulent 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Bavarian Creme 10.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Latest Edition 6.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Photon 2.50 4.8 9-1
1 1 My Cara Mia Mine 15.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Tara Dancer 6.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Can’t Fool Me 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Lem Me Drink 6.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Hikaru 12.00 9 17-1
10 10 Mischief Motion 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Uptown Express 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Voleuse 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Yogi 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Actualize 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Necromancer 3.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Upper Level 1.80 3.8 7-1
5 5 Grand Again 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Sainthoodforbrian 8.00 6 11-1
7 7 Dorsoduro 15.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Genesis One 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Synthesis 0 0-1
1 1 Saint Selby 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Senbei 3.00 2 4-1
6 6 Happy Farm 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Swiftsure 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Stage Left 4.50 5.1 10-1
5 5 Synthesis 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fancypants Juliana 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Slow Down Summer 8.00 2.4 4-1
10 10 Moonage Daydream 4.50 3.2 6-1
9 9 Leadership Ability 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Follow the Fed 12.00 4 7-1
4 4 Galatrona 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Dance With Me Babe 15.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Bad Samaritan 10.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Summer Nitro 15.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Ma Mi Jo Dreams 12.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Sonja Knips 20.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Bring the Magic 20.00 8.3 16-1
13 13 Showemyourheels 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Highway Harmony 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Clover Street 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Dream On Cara 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (John Hettinger S.) – John Hettinger S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Runaway Rumour 0 0-1
2 2 Make Mischief 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Runaway Rumour 4.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Marvelous Maude 2.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Classic Lady 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Ice Princess 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Classic Colors 10.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Finest Work 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Pure Bode 12.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Vienna Code 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Winter Pool 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Truculent 5.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 American Tattoo (ARG) 3.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 Grumps Little Tots 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Healing 12.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Locally Owned 3.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Two Thirty Five 6.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Pioneer Spirit 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Nay Say (IRE) 15.00 1 2-1
6 6 Out of Sight 8.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 No Valla 15.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Diamond Hands 4.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Unruly Julie 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Caironi 20.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Marketsegmentation 3.00 6 11-1
3 3 Parnac (FR) 4.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Salimah (IRE) 8.00 8.1 15-1
12 12 Rhombique 30.00 8.7 16-1
11 11 Musical Romance (GB) 12.00 9.1 17-1
10 10 Ensemble (IRE) 12.00 9.9 19-1
13 13 Tuscan Queen 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Chorus Girl 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mariah’s Fortune 2.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.