Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 1, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Thach 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Go Virtual 6.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Command Central 2.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 On Spot 8.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Hey Boss 8.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Big Pete 6.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Little Red Rifle 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Shaniah 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Minute Waltz 2.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Icy River 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 In My Opinion 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Comedy Act 2.50 5.2 10-1
2 2 Shell Shock 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Chipmunk 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Ms Hayley 5.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Cupids Payday 5.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Fabulosity 3.50 7 13-1
3 3 Tenacious Lady 10.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Twelve Sharp 10.00 8.7 16-1
10 10 Unkept Secret 10.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Long Black Veil 15.00 9.2 17-1
8 8 Fly Condor 8.00 9.7 18-1
9 9 Royal Belle 12.00 9.9 19-1
5 5 Gray Frost 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 American Pure 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Runway Magic 2.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Undecoded 3.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 West Warpath 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Mean Machine 12.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Tachlis 20.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 El Franco 20.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Arthurian 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Tapit’s Conquest 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Denington 3.50 1.9 3-1
7 7 Magnificent Mile 5.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Prairie Dunes 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Fortune 12.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 No Easy Days 15.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Pyrenees 8.00 7 13-1
9 9 Escapologist 15.00 9.1 17-1
6 6 Millers Rite 20.00 9.7 18-1
1 1 O Gangster 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Surveillance 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 O Besos 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Fore Left 4.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 My Man Flintstone 12.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Lykan 15.00 3 6-1
5 5 Lofty Adjudicator 20.00 3 6-1
6 6 Kavod 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Frank’s Honor 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Recker Point 4.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Game Warden 6.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Ten Days Later 6.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Mano Dura 10.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Desert Wolf 4.50 6.3 12-1
7 7 Curlins Incharge 10.00 7 13-1
3 3 Eldest Son 10.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Spielman 20.00 8.7 16-1
11 11 Big Popper 12.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Pappy Wolfe 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tiwanaku 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Strong Quality 3.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Tepeu 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Happy Boy Rocket 10.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Complete Agenda 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Tiz Rye Time 12.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 O P Firecracker 12.00 5 10-1
6 6 Elusive Target 12.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Fenwick 20.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Open Road 6.00 10.5 20-1
4 4 The Prince’s Spur 10.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Ack Ack S.) – Ack Ack S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Speaker’s Corner 1.00 1 2-1
7 7 Injunction 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Untreated 4.50 4.8 9-1
8 8 Senor Buscador 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Fulsome 5.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Surly Furious 20.00 5 10-1
10 10 Twilight Blue 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Three Technique 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Silver Prospector 12.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Mailman Money 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Lukas Classic S.) – Lukas Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Rich Strike 0 0-1
3 3 Happy Saver 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Art Collector 2.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Hot Rod Charlie 1.60 2.3 4-1
1 1 King Fury 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Rich Strike 6.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Chess Chief 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Your So Sillea 15.00 1 2-1
8 8 Amaryllis Kiss 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Twentytwenty Hoax 15.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Ankyrah 15.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Scarlet Stripe 2.50 4.3 8-1
11 11 Delightof the Nile 10.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 One Time Mo 8.00 9.3 18-1
6 6 Bidofhoney 12.00 9.8 19-1
2 2 Itdowhatitdo 10.00 9.9 19-1
12 12 Markswoman 8.00 10.5 20-1
10 10 Get By 15.00 10.7 20-1
4 4 Mo Happy 20.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.