Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 2, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Easy Big Boy 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Big Beemster 3.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 He’s a Good Dancer 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Giant Awakening 6.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Vasy Says Nyet 6.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Tsuris 8.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Wilderzar 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Maestoso 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Distorted Secrets 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Cant Be Touched 2.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Legerity 3.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Canary 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Honey Run 2.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Edgee Angel 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cortese 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Childers 2.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Tumbarumba 8.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Baby Billy 10.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Atkins 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Own the Field 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Pappa’s Dream 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Drop Anchor 0 0-1
5 5 Drop Anchor 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Corn Pop 2.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Plemmonston 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Commander Compton 1.60 3.1 6-1
4 4 Bronze Beast 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Consider 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Mountain Ghost 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Boxster 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Money Run 5.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Salta 4.00 5 9-1
8 8 Distorted Pro 4.50 5.1 10-1
7 7 Brilliant Colors 6.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Louisianimal 8.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Olazabal 4.50 6.1 12-1
4 4 Funny Uncle 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Family Man 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Home Run Trick 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 All West 3.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Bear Oak 6.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Leader of Men 4.50 4.9 9-1
3 3 Eagle Pass 15.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Justin’s Quest 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Metaphysical 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Lady Squared 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Flirting Girl 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Alpha Bella 3.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Midvale 8.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Bella Maker 6.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Destine to Race 8.00 7 13-1
2 2 Lacie Be Good 12.00 8 15-1
8 8 Lovin’ On the Run 8.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 East Shore 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Breaking News 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Explosive 3.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 League of Legends 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Mahomey 8.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Koufax 5.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Money Mike 5.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Leblon 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Park On the Nile 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Berate 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 High Fashion 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 She’s Keen 2.50 4.6 9-1
6 6 Roc’s Princess 12.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Malibu Marlee 20.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Outlining 6.00 8 15-1
1 1 Lovely Princess 3.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Engrave 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Montauk Point 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Shipman 4.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Skelly 3.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Victory March 6.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Mamzooj 8.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Allo Enry 20.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Touch Code 20.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Chiron 20.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 Fowler Castle 15.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.