Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 6, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Four O Six Creed 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Mor Victory 10.00 3 6-1
4 4 Buck’s Glory 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Step On It 6.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Nerky Rose 3.50 6.7 13-1
3 3 Quiet as Midnight 4.50 7.1 13-1
5 5 Brite Outlook 12.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Awesome Cajun 5.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Wild Mallory 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Champagne Affair 3.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Itsnotmyjob 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Gee Gee 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Summertime Bandit 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Knights Sword 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Roaring Quinn 20.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Galaxy Thirtysix 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mylies Star 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Come What Mae 3.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Ashley’s Girl 5.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Queen of the Moon 8.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 She’s Takin Over 8.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Yes I’m a Lady 10.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Allen’s Judy 12.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Jivin Astro 15.00 8.9 17-1
3 3 Shooting Stick 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cyclone Sorority 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Suffragette 3.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Silver Siren 2.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Moment to Dream 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Gilded Apple 6.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 For Real Alice 12.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Bourn 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Truly a Rocket 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Typo 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Quotabelle 4.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Kancancutie 2.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Shesabeautydancer 5.00 3 6-1
1 1 Expect a Dancer 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 California Cali 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Psalm Prayer 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Cinco de Mayo 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Grand Priority 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Dealmeinbud 2.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Paynt Battle 12.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Smoky Topaz 4.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Wedington 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Bode’s Light 5.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Speedy G 8.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 My Book 12.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Cleric 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Thirtyeightcaliber 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mists of Time 3.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Falcon Heavy 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Building Home 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 See Sassy Run 2.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Lil Allie Dancer 3.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Foursweetnieces 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Be a Bandit 8.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 I’m All Mixed Up 15.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Enduring Peace 6.00 7.7 14-1
9 9 Envoys Legacy 15.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Prayers Saved 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Wise Anchor 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Your Time’s Coming 8.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 And Fifty 4.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Commander Scott 6.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Too Much Bourbon 4.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Grief 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Monarch’s Mischief 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Autumns Strong Man 15.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Sournois 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Lower Cretaceous 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Good Old Charlie 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Awesome Arch 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Seemyvalentine 5.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Chickietown Star 12.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Don’t Look Ethel 12.00 3 6-1
10 10 Mo Dixie Diva 5.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Hot Patootie 15.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Maywon 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Secret Moment 20.00 5 9-1
8 8 With Grace 6.00 7.8 15-1
12 12 Flying I 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Poseidon’s Queen 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Roadside Girl 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.