Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 7, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Riverboat Gambler 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 With Verve 8.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Alfie Solomons 4.50 2 4-1
2 2 Sounion 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Hoopla 6.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Direct Order 5.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Glory Song 20.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 David’s Gem 20.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Higher Authority 8.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Make Noise 8.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Misread 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Gunesh 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 She’s All Class 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 The Gang That Sang 20.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Seabrook 5.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Scripps 3.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Magical Act 4.50 6.7 13-1
4 4 Crystal Snow 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Key of Life 1.60 1 2-1
8 8 Baytown Lovely 30.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Looking for Hope 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Crackalacking 15.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Twice as Sweet 3.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Ribbonsinherhair 6.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Santa Fe Gold 8.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Mursal 50.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Karma Ghia 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mark of the Z 0 0-1
8 8 Johnny Unleashed 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Strike Me Down 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Casanova Kitten 10.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Mark of the Z 15.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Therideofalifetime 4.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Joker On Jack 3.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Robo Man 15.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Be Here 5.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Torontotoro 6.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 One for Richie 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Beguine 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Miss Mattie B 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Nosilverspoonshere 8.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Street Jam 10.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Golden Sights 6.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Towser 6.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Olga Isabel 4.50 3.8 7-1
10 10 Ring Me Darling 20.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Fast and Flirty 15.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Jag Warrior 10.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Code for Success 20.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Halaga 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Ironsides 20.00 1 2-1
9 9 Dakota Run 30.00 1.2 2-1
11 11 Sir 15.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Welaka 20.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Golden Bandit 4.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Liberty’s Hauler 4.50 5.9 11-1
3 3 Mobster 8.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Collier’s Time 12.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 My Uncle Leon 15.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Z Z’s Prince 6.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 Fashion King 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Briterdayzahead 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Big Hat Willie 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mabuhay 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Easy Action 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Monba Quake 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S.) – Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Special Reserve 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Necker Island 3.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Top Gunner 10.00 4 8-1
1 1 Sir Alfred James 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Sibelius 2.50 4.9 9-1
8 8 Long Range Toddy 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Manny Wah 8.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Baytown Bear 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Jpmorgan Chase Jessamine S.) – Jpmorgan Chase Jessamine S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bling 0 0-1
Promise of Hope 0 0-1
4 4 Promise of Hope 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Happy Gal 5.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Towhead 4.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Sabalenka 10.00 4 8-1
9 9 Recognize 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Delight 4.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Dulcia 15.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Knockyoursocksoff 30.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 Blind Spot 15.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 C C Cruise Control 20.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Bling 6.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Stephanie’s Charm 15.00 10.8 20-1
14 14 Southlawn 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Aztec Nights 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Play the Music 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tax Implications (GB) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Darley Alcibiades S.) – Darley Alcibiades S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Wonder Wheel 4.50 1 2-1
13 13 Sabra Tuff 50.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 Just Cindy 20.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Xigera 5.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Infinite Diamond 10.00 6 11-1
9 9 Fun and Feisty 3.50 6.1 12-1
10 10 Kaling 6.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Raging Sea 6.00 6.4 12-1
14 14 Boss Lady Bailey 50.00 7 13-1
3 3 Stellar Lady 30.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Essaouira 15.00 8.2 15-1
2 2 Chop Chop 12.00 8.5 16-1
12 12 Take Charge Briana 15.00 10.2 19-1
6 6 Mustang Lady 50.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Queen Bourbon 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Fairchild 2.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Federalist Papers 4.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Mia Martina 10.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Longpants Required 12.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Therearenorules 20.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Light Stars (FR) 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Roughly a Diamond 8.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Dance Warrior 30.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Soft Touch 10.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Maotai 50.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Loved Reiko 30.00 8.2 16-1
13 13 Go Big Blue Nation 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.