Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 8, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bourbon On Fire 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Pine Valley 4.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Beyblader 6.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 You Make Me Happy 20.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Morning Cup 4.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Roan for the Rose 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Celluloid Hero 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Crow’s Nest 3.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Inventing Anna 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Adiva 30.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Jersey Pearl 12.00 3.3 6-1
14 14 California Belle 30.00 4.8 9-1
12 12 Humbling 2.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Work of Fiction 20.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Fame Street 30.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Alexa Lou 15.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Stay Fabulous 4.50 6.7 13-1
11 11 Affirmative Lady 4.00 8.2 15-1
15 15 Her Ladyship 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 American Maestra 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Moral Turpitude 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tivali 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Magical Lute 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Feeling Happy 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Bayshore Foxes 3.50 3 6-1
5 5 Mrs. Nushi 5.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Jumakan Bourbon 12.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Big Java 3.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Sweet Beauty 10.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Divine Hope 8.00 8 15-1
1 1 Social Mandate 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Jeremy’s Jet 15.00 1 2-1
1 1 Prove Right 4.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Tap in Formation 0.80 1.6 3-1
3 3 Hurricane J 3.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Western Ghent 20.00 3 6-1
6 6 Gold Luck 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Baytown Jagger 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Osbourne 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Gulfstream Way 4.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Implementation 8.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Seal Beach 12.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 St Andrews 15.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Caramelito 15.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Hippodrome 30.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Ben Diesel 6.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Button Boy 8.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Zap Motion 15.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Embrace 8.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Malibu Mike 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Woodford S. Presented By Fanduel) – Woodford S. Presented By Fanduel

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Golden Pal 0.80 1 2-1
7 7 Artemus Citylimits 4.50 4.6 9-1
5 5 Gear Jockey 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Bad Beat Brian 15.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Cadamosto (IRE) 10.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Charcoal 15.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Oceanic 6.00 7 13-1
1 1 County Final 30.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 All in Sync 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Thoroughbred Club Of America S.) – Thoroughbred Club Of America S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sconsin 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Joyful Cadence 10.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Slammed 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 Li’l Tootsie 15.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Club Car 4.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Liberty M D 20.00 5 9-1
2 2 Palm Cottage 4.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Happy Soul 6.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Carribean Caper 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (First Lady S. Presented By Uk Healthcare) – First Lady S. Presented By Uk Healthcare

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Regal Glory 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Princess Grace 6.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Technical Analysis (IRE) 2.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 In Italian (GB) 3.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Market Rumor 20.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Vigilantes Way 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity) – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Forte 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Loggins 4.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Lost Ark 6.00 3.1 6-1
15 15 Carmel Road 5.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Newgate 20.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Funtastic Again 15.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Honed 12.00 6.8 13-1
14 14 Powerful 20.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Good Heart 20.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Instant Coffee 5.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Frosted Departure 10.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Red Route One 20.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Bourbon Bash 20.00 8 15-1
13 13 Two Phil’s 30.00 9 17-1
16 16 Jin Tong 50.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Confidence Game 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Coolmore Turf Mile S.) – Coolmore Turf Mile S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Order of Australia (IRE) 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Somelikeithotbrown 12.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Ivar (BRZ) 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Santin 3.50 4 8-1
9 9 Casa Creed 5.00 4.8 9-1
12 12 Set Piece (GB) 15.00 5.1 10-1
13 13 Atone 20.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Masen (GB) 12.00 5.6 10-1
8 8 Annapolis 10.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Gray’s Fable 30.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Classic Causeway 20.00 7.6 14-1
16 16 Greyes Creek 50.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Smooth Like Strait 4.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Emaraaty (GB) 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Natural Power (IRE) 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Dark Shift (GB) 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Call Me Fast 0 0-1
4 4 Rewire 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Cape Trafalgar 3.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Call Me Fast 6.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Andy Cant 8.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Monjid 20.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Peruvian Lucky 20.00 3 6-1
7 7 Veritable 12.00 3 6-1
6 6 Nashoba’s Joy 5.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Old Point 3.50 5.9 11-1
5 5 Boco 50.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.