Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 9, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Guana Cay 1.50 1 2-1
3 3 Lady Emily 2.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Judy’s Way 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Teller to Sing 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Kimberley Dream 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 La Tourista 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mo Saturdays 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Notion 8.00 3 6-1
8 8 Giroovin 15.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Backside Buzz 20.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Hit Show 2.50 6.5 12-1
1 1 Spoiler 4.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Creative Strategy 10.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Canavall 20.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Toast to Coast 12.00 9.9 19-1
9 9 Bengals Go 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sisaway Now 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Carbonite 1.60 1.3 2-1
6 6 Olliemeister 2.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 Eyes of Glory 15.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Yono 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Wesleyan 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Right of Rush 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sarah Harper 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Chandana 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Center Aisle 1.80 4.8 9-1
6 6 Recoded 10.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Be Like Water 3.50 5.9 11-1
4 4 Current Climate 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Friendlypersuasion 0 0-1
8 8 Aztec Nights 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Up to Something 12.00 1.3 3-1
5 5 Friendlypersuasion 2.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Closed Caption 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Outofnothingatall 20.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Play the Music 4.50 3.4 7-1
2 2 Need Some Money 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Red Jewel 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select) – Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 No Nay Hudson (IRE) 8.00 1 2-1
11 11 Private Creed 4.50 2.8 5-1
9 9 Mo Stash 15.00 4 8-1
3 3 Bourbon Therapy 30.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Castelmola 30.00 5 9-1
4 4 Kbcya Later 30.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Mounsieur Coco 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Numero Seis 20.00 6 11-1
2 2 Ghent 20.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Revere Note 50.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Love Reigns (IRE) 0.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Fashion King 0 0-1
Raise Cain 0 0-1
2 2 Perform 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 What a Blast 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Raise Cain 15.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Macho Villa 20.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Monba Quake 30.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Fashion King 4.50 5.9 11-1
4 4 Beau Day 20.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Aerator 10.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 McEnroe 8.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Cagliostro 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Castle & Key Bourbon S.) – Castle & Key Bourbon S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Andthewinneris 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Deer District 8.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Really Good 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Reckoning Force 3.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Rarified Flair 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Boppy O 4.50 3.8 7-1
2 2 Panama (GB) 15.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Gigante 4.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Our Dream Rye’d 20.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Accident 50.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 B Minor 20.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Hendrickson 15.00 12.3 23-1
16 16 Oscar Award 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 General Jim 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Zaici 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Mendel’s Secret 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Juddmonte Spinster S.) – Juddmonte Spinster S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Army Wife 0 0-1
3 3 Letruska 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Malathaat 0.60 1.3 2-1
4 4 Played Hard 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Army Wife 15.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Princess of Cairo 30.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Mud Pie 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Reigning Spirit 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Cibolian 15.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Point Me By 6.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Offlee Naughty 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Militarist 6.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Onenightstandards 15.00 5.5 10-1
13 13 Celerity 30.00 6.6 13-1
14 14 Blanket of Roses 50.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Full Charge 30.00 7 13-1
11 11 Always Above 20.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 No Slo Mo 30.00 10.1 19-1
15 15 Markitoff 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Chantry Flats 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 February Son 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Western River 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.