Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Brawndo 0 0-1
4 4 Brawndo 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Belfast Boy 8.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Arthurian 3.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Editorial Comment (ARG) 4.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Classic King 3.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Bonus Appreciation 4.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Red Label 10.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 El Franco 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Azzurro 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 North Bay 3.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Conspiracy Fact 6.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Uptown Hustler 2.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Blunder 30.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Paid in Full 20.00 3.3 6-1
11 11 Loco 30.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Private Connie 30.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 He Reigns 30.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Guided Arrow 20.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Grantastic 15.00 8.8 17-1
16 16 Lucky Dude 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Southern Sense 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Master Game 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Pudge Boy Palace 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Practical Sense 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 King Doodle 20.00 1 2-1
11 11 Scotch No Rocks 30.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Shakedown Street 4.50 1.4 3-1
12 12 Liam the Brave 15.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 B G Lee 15.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Paid Twice 8.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Extravagate 20.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Spuns Son 30.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Lead Actor 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Biggie 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Aristocat 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Maasai Warrior 1.60 SCRATCH
13 13 Heir to Greatness 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Winged Foot 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sono Grato 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Writeitontheice 5.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Malibu Time 6.00 2.2 4-1
11 11 Kiss Principal 20.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 One More Baby 4.50 2.7 5-1
9 9 Mulberry Street 15.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Coastal Chaos 12.00 3 6-1
12 12 Can’t Hush This 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Prestonsbird 50.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Zipper Zapper 30.00 7.7 15-1
13 13 Jacks Fire Balls 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Cash Express 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Mundo Mix 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Policy Option 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Camp Daddy 15.00 2.6 5-1
11 11 Moms Moon 15.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Martini’nmoonshine 3.50 3.3 6-1
12 12 Master of the Ring 10.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Emirates Road 10.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Penner Ash (IRE) 20.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Baj 6.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Script 15.00 6 11-1
9 9 Kentucky Mist 30.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Two Birds 15.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Mazuma 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Catnip 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Breslau 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Miss Shipman 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mija 4.00 1.5 3-1
12 12 Guns n’ Lilies 15.00 1.7 3-1
11 11 The Alys Look 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Soultitlesready 10.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Roses and Rozay 10.00 6 11-1
1 1 Beautifulness 15.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Diamondsifyoudo 5.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Mischievous Gal 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Harmonica 8.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Her Ladyship 20.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Tivali 10.00 6.8 13-1
14 14 Two Minute Lick 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Moral Turpitude 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bourbon Spirit 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 Confidence Game 15.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Mo’s Treasure 12.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 American Blaze 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Traffic Master 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Redeemer 10.00 3.9 7-1
12 12 Zaici 30.00 4 8-1
10 10 Hayes Strike 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Forbidden Secret 8.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 Nitroman 20.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Carmel Road 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Frank’s Honor 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Counterspy 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bay Street Money 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Reward Night 10.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Cool Rags 20.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Greatheart 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Rhetoric 3.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Wake Surf 15.00 5 9-1
10 10 Axthelm 4.50 5.5 10-1
11 11 Watch the Music 20.00 5.5 10-1
12 12 Britain’s Kitten 15.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Coleridge 12.00 6.1 11-1
9 9 Jr’s Gift 30.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Legionnaire 12.00 7.5 14-1
14 14 El Ahijado 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Roughin the City 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.