Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 13, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bless the Kitten 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 My Bariley 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Quantum Leap 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Contact Tracing 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 First Glimpse 2.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Midnight J J 3.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Doozy Batz 1.00 1 2-1
10 10 Klimt’s Muse 12.00 2 4-1
6 6 Domitia Lucilla 4.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Verdandi 6.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 La Chapeau 15.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Stupendous 30.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Yellow Creek Road 20.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 You’re Avoiding Me 12.00 8 15-1
1 1 Stake a Claim 15.00 9 17-1
12 12 Knelcock 30.00 9.6 18-1
5 5 Liznow 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bodieful 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Sweet Valeria 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Nana’s Gray 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Edgee Angel 8.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Bourbonwithginger 15.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Mohaylady 5.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Shezz Koldazice 1.80 3.1 6-1
1 1 Smile At the Storm 20.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Ain’t She a Pistol 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Super Cat Lady 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Real News 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Create Again 6.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Big Thorn 3.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Rocking the Boat 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Mo’s Mojo 15.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Motagally 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Rolling Fork 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 King’s Mischief 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 Full Impact 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Nepotism 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Quick to Blame 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Icarus 2.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Cousin Larry 4.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Miacomet 10.00 2 4-1
1 1 National Security 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Ministerial 12.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Civics Class 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Doctor Nash 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Divine Grace 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Saenz 1.80 1.8 3-1
5 5 Marsanne 15.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Perfect Rose 20.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Peaceful Moment 10.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Through the Cracks 15.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Right Now 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Smooth Like Ice 12.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 I’m So Cozze 20.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Divisibility 4.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Charriere 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Tshiebwe 0 0-1
9 9 Summonyourcourage 1.80 1 2-1
10 10 Freezing Point 6.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Wilderzar 12.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Tshiebwe 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Juan Valdez 10.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Sacred Ground 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Level Up 30.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Extra Anejo 4.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Relampago Verde 15.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Malibu Mendelssohn 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Static Fire 0.80 1 2-1
3 3 Promises to Dance 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Roses for Debra 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Chasing Fireflies 12.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Diva Treva 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Mystique Saboteur 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Daisy Bee 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 Jubilee Bridge 8.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Fast as Flight 6.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Candy Light 2.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Fuente Ovejuna (GB) 12.00 2 4-1
11 11 Intrigue 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Sake (FR) 30.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Blissful 4.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Cuzzywuzzy 30.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Toeris 10.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Let’s Duet 20.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Explicate 30.00 8.7 16-1
13 13 Mint Edition 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Duplicitous 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Sensitivity 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Insatiable 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Fleetridge 0 0-1
9 9 Cajun Brother 10.00 1 2-1
12 12 Shacks Way 8.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Thirsty Betrayal 12.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Petit Verdot 8.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Honorary Degree 20.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Fleetridge 3.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Masai Man 20.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Feeling It 30.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 One for Richie 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Beverly Park 4.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Crime Spree 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 East of India 50.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.