Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 14, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cadeau de Paix 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Girls a Bullet 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Catechism 20.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Sister’s Ghost 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Diamond Lydiamarie 12.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Tachlis 20.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Tap N Sway 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Retained 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Army Star 4.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Suitable 6.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Philharmonic 12.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Sailor’s Chance 20.00 6 11-1
6 6 Warhorse West 20.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Grimes 10.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Chili Red 8.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Natural Red 15.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Full Mag 15.00 9.2 17-1
12 12 Hendrix 15.00 9.8 19-1
10 10 Tizride 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Hill of Tara 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Awesome Indra 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Invaluable 2.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Frills 6.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Foreign Exchange 15.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Li’l Grazen 1.40 4.9 9-1
1 1 L. A. Star 20.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Aferdita 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Blue Kentucky 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Stormy Pattern 2.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Desoto’s War 3.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Sag Harbor 10.00 6.6 13-1
1 1 Hot Pastrami 4.50 7.2 14-1
4 4 Not Yet Charlie 15.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Lucky Promise 20.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Chasin Charlie 20.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 West Warpath 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Isn’t She Lovely 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Lady Puchi 3.50 2 4-1
4 4 Sensitivity 6.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Duplicitous 30.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Herington Rocket 4.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Queen Judith 4.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Aizu 20.00 4.1 8-1
13 13 Waywardness 30.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Three Tipsy Chix 20.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Precursory 6.00 6 11-1
7 7 Livy B 20.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Quaria Brava 30.00 9.3 18-1
14 14 Thrombocytopenia 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Chione 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Strava 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Tejano Twist 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Peaceful Waters 1.20 2.4 4-1
8 8 Surfer Dude 15.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Make It Big 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Coppola 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Knocker Down 10.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Stonevicious 30.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Boise 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Boltoro 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Sun Bee 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Noble Bernadette 20.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Self Confident 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Watch This Munny 12.00 4.5 9-1
14 14 Bolt for Allison 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Mystify 8.00 5.4 10-1
12 12 Dream Role 20.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Paint Me Perfect 15.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Freeform 30.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 American Odalisque 30.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Around the Sun 12.00 10.7 20-1
13 13 Song of Storms 50.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Stay Lost 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Callie’s Grit 3.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Dot Marie 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mahaamel 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 Strobe 1.80 1.6 3-1
8 8 Angkor 6.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Drive for Fun 15.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Emperador 12.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 American Icon 12.00 4 8-1
5 5 Classic Moment 20.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Ignitis 30.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Let My People Go 20.00 4.8 9-1
13 13 Sparty Sense 30.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Improbable Journey 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Overbore 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Appeal Denied 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Sycamore S.) – Sycamore S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mira Mission 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Channel Maker 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Red Knight 6.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Highland Chief (IRE) 4.50 3 6-1
8 8 Temple 10.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Arklow 4.00 3.6 7-1
13 13 Highest Honors 8.00 4.7 9-1
12 12 Cellist 30.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Admission Office 20.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 British Royalty 30.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Accredit 30.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Balthus (IRE) 12.00 8.4 16-1
16 16 Keystone Field 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Another Mystery 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Time for Trouble 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Shawdyshawdyshawdy 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Almanzo 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Per Diem 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Pudge Boy Palace 10.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Rikio 30.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Impenetrable 4.50 4.5 8-1
2 2 Lucky Dude 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Southern Sense 12.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Robust 20.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Awesome Charge 20.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Bodieful 30.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Cooper Time 8.00 9.9 19-1
13 13 Willacy 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Silvestre 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Strings 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Master Game 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.