Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
One Cool Dude 0 0-1
Angel of the North 0 0-1
7 7 Get Through 4.50 1 2-1
10 10 Order of Merit 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Heir to Greatness 3.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Aristocat 6.00 2 4-1
9 9 One Cool Dude 8.00 3 6-1
11 11 On Spot 20.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Go Virtual 30.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Nordic Light 20.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Onemorandthecheck 12.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Angel of the North 10.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Command Central 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Somebody Loves Me 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Ughrouda 6.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Tyrona 3.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Pout 4.50 3 6-1
2 2 Backstreet Affair 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Save Grace 10.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Open Says Me 12.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Sweet Truffles 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Dogwoodsmilliejane 30.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Leave It Be 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lady Goldstart 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Sister Annie 3.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Music City Star 10.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Dulcimer Dame 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Tipsy Gal 12.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Beachside Bunny 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Super Wonder Girl 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Sofia Strong 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Magical Peapod 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Zap Motion 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Steely Danza 4.50 2.4 4-1
10 10 Nineties Country 5.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Gold Heritage 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Midaswellrun 3.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Towing 15.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Wesleyan 30.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Oro de Moro Moro 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 See Spot Run 30.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Shack the Life 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
American Starlet 0 0-1
8 8 American Starlet 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Only Kidding 4.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 In My Opinion 15.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Laugh and Play 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Get Serious 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Quaria Comet 3.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Morgs World 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 My Tommy Lee 30.00 7 13-1
10 10 Joy Enamorada 50.00 8 15-1
5 5 The Club 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cyclone Mischief 1.80 1 2-1
8 8 Presider 3.50 2.9 6-1
5 5 Wadsworth 6.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 O Gangster 30.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 My Imagination 20.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Mr Midway 20.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 King d’Oro 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Permafrost 20.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Spencer’s Boy Luna 50.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Seeking Unity 4.50 8.7 16-1
13 13 King Russell 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Laver 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Mazing Mark 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Wicked Secret 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Code One 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Recker Point 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Heart Rhythm 0 0-1
Prevalence 0 0-1
7 7 Prevalence 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Here Mi Song 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Heart Rhythm 12.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 South Bend 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Chattalot 8.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Hollis 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Doc Amster 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Aboukir Bay 0 0-1
1 1 Shannon 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Boxing Day 15.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Gambling Cat 6.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Opening Buzz 2.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Aboukir Bay 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Kant Believe It 12.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Ball Gown 30.00 6 11-1
2 2 Kiting 30.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Chromeplated Heart 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Arlyne’s Crown 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Top Gun Girl 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.