Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 20, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ocean’s Reserve 1.00 1 2-1
6 6 Refuah 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Our Son Jake 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Josie’s Thunder 4.50 4 8-1
4 4 Tie Breaker 5.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Twirling Vine 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Linny Kate 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Kerik 1.40 2.1 4-1
3 3 That Is Key 2.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Grudge 15.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Big Al’s Gal 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Jen’s Battle 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Miss Dracarys 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Wicked Groove 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Lady Day (FR) 1.20 3.9 7-1
6 6 Creative Cairo 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Community Adjusted 4.50 4.4 8-1
1 1 Starship Mallomar 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Charleston Strong 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Proven Hope 5.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Jurkovec 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Straight Time 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Stjames 6.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Recluse 15.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Upper Level 2.50 5.1 10-1
5 5 Kimbo Dancer 30.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Crack the Code 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Trade Secret 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 She Caught My Eye 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Monshun 1.80 1.7 3-1
10 10 Dazzy 15.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Belarus 8.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Closing Deals 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 True Empress 10.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Ice Cold Gold 10.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Arabellas Girl 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Sweet Maeve 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Classic Lady 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 My Lips Are Sealed 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Whatlovelookslike 4.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Palace Gossip 10.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Lady Thornhill 10.00 5 9-1
9 9 Masterof the Tunes 6.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 She’s a Mia 5.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Theodora Grace 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Golden Rocket 10.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Dancingwthdaffodls 30.00 8.6 16-1
12 12 Girl of Tosconova 2.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Impazible Donna 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 To a T 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Baba 1.80 1.2 2-1
1 1 Snicket 3.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Silver Strand 3.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Chasing Cara 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Firing Carol 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Golquist 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Moon Hunter 8.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Maseta 4.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Suit of Armor 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 He’s Got It 5.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Fenway 8.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Eddie the Great 6.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 On Our Way Boyz 10.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Hudson Overpass 15.00 7 13-1
9 9 Nature Boy 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Stella Mars 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Anador (FR) 6.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Dreamful 2.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Run Up the Score 10.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Maybe Later 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Solib 20.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Except Temptation 10.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Pegs A. K. Girl 5.00 6 11-1
1 1 Lady of Thoroton 15.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Capital Gal 15.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Synonymous 30.00 7.8 15-1
12 12 Chaysenbryn 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 I’m Nervous Now 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Spooky Road 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Know It All Audrey 1.40 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.