Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 20, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Gold Chain 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 La Danta 5.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Flying I 4.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Sloopy Hang On 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Keep On Dreaming 15.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Gypsy Soul 3.50 4.5 8-1
2 2 Prime Choice 12.00 6 11-1
10 10 Dee Din 20.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Moro Smoke 8.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Tenpins Tempest 20.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Don’t Look Ethel 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Hot Patootie 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Shades of Truth 15.00 1 2-1
7 7 Madame Jane 8.00 1.7 3-1
11 11 D’wild Muffin 10.00 2.3 4-1
1 6 Tugboat 4.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Wupkar 3.00 3.6 7-1
3 2 April Mist 6.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Lovely Lady May 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Mollys Flyin High 12.00 4.1 8-1
5 4 A Wish for Madelyn 15.00 5.7 11-1
4 3 Molli Way 15.00 6.4 12-1
1A 12 Saber Queen 4.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Charlie’s Peak 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mr. Butch Womble 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Indefensible Town 2.50 1.6 3-1
11 11 Mor Big Lee 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Make Your Destiny 12.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Snakebit 6.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 St Pierre 15.00 4 8-1
9 9 Cajun Connection 4.50 5.8 11-1
5 5 Mangum 10.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Marvins’ Posse 20.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Big Tap Baby 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Drewnanimous 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Top Hat Cat 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Lucky Break 3.50 1.1 2-1
7 7 Policy Limit 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Mr. Curlin 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Win in the City 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Callen Feels Good 12.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Just Hangin Ridge 5.00 6 11-1
9 9 Shady Monkey 10.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Hard Twist 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Chrome Run 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Pitch and Run 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Biloxi 4.50 2.6 5-1
9 9 Classy Shipman 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Street Commander 4.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Malibu Money 15.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Classic Runner 10.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Texas Turbine 12.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Golden Confusion 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Adios Carlos 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Knight Commander 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Smooth Colliery 8.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Prado’s Priority 4.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Pickens 12.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Intimidation 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Yankee Seven 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 No Pedigree 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Screwball 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Nugget of Grace 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Blazing Charlie 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Gottatakehimto 5.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Plenty of Cents 20.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Marvins Gold 8.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Chapel of Dreams 12.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Proudtown 15.00 6.6 13-1
11 11 Fiftyfive Strong 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Valiant Defender 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Candy Shopper 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Spirit Soul 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Itsnotmyjob 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Flashy Meg 5.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 First I’ve Seen 5.00 3 6-1
1A 9 Puzzling Priority 5.00 3.3 6-1
3 2 See Sassy Run 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 1 Myfriendsawinner 3.50 6.2 12-1
4 3 Explosively Hot 12.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Flashyboy’s Lilsis 12.00 8.8 17-1
1 4 Wendy Wilecat 5.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Indefensible 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Texan Boy 4.50 1.3 2-1
10 10 Too Much Crown 4.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Jambi 6.00 2 4-1
3 3 Confess 15.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 South Al Sparky 15.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Bottomless 6.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Mischevious Robert 10.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Big Boss Man 12.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Flashy Premo 12.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Captains Cove 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.